Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v Hearts

Saturday 13 March 2027, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 30

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.121.62
Win26%48%
Expected Points1.031.71
Clean sheet20%33%

Kilmarnock 26%Draw 26%Hearts 48%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%5%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position12th3rd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠55–⁠1–⁠2
Points5 (0.62 per game)16 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.811.90
Goals7–⁠1819–⁠8
xG per game1.04–⁠2.212.02–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 0.73–⁠2.923.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.491.00, 1.60–⁠1.66
ManagerNeil McCann (24)Wouter Vrancken (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58, 12thHearts1.11, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17Hearts attack: 1.521.521.17HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.58Hearts defence: 1.111.581.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+41%+17%−21%
Counter-attacks−77%+88%−11%−53%
Set pieces−15%+48%+27%−8%
Penalties−100%−40%+140%−40%
Headers−36%+137%−10%−9%
Left side−39%+57%+45%−37%
Centre−23%+80%+25%+5%
Right side−20%−5%−34%−50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−39%−50%Centre−23%+5%Right side−20%−37%Open play−20%−21%Counter-attacks−77%−53%Set pieces−15%−8%Headers−36%−9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+45%−5%Centre+25%+80%Right side−34%+57%Open play+17%+41%Counter-attacks−11%+88%Set pieces+27%+48%Headers−10%+137%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

1.04xG2.02
2.21xG against1.20
42%Possession54%
10.2Shots16.8
18.5Shots against9.5
4.0Shots on target5.4
1.6Big chances2.8
20.1Touches in the opposition box29.9
378Passes445
77%Pass accuracy79%
4.6Corners7.4
39%Field tilt59%
36.9Final-third entries38.2
10.5Box entries16.5
16.5Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 September 2026Kilmarnock1–1HeartsxG 0.39–1.92
14 March 2026Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.27–1.06
3 December 2025Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 2.19–1.80
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Hearts won 5, and 6 were drawn. Goals 14–18 and xG 1.28–1.50 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.