Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone v Kilmarnock

Saturday 20 February 2027, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 28

Forecast

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Expected goals1.461.20
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.551.18
Clean sheet30%23%

St. Johnstone 43%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  2. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  3. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  4. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  5. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07
  6. L1–229 AugHearts (A)xG 1.28–2.20

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
Position5th12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠31–⁠2–⁠5
Points11 (1.38 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.170.81
Goals10–⁠107–⁠18
xG per game1.33–⁠1.591.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.49–⁠1.410.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.771.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerSimo Valakari (39)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.07, 12thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56, 11thKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.07Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.07KilmarnockSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.56Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+11%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks−55%−18%−77%+88%
Set pieces−29%+3%−15%+48%
Penalties+80%−40%−100%−40%
Headers−18%+40%−36%+137%
Left side−6%+13%−39%+57%
Centre−20%−7%−23%+80%
Right side−63%+16%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−6%−5%Centre−20%+80%Right side−63%+57%Open play−21%+41%Counter-attacks−55%+88%Set pieces−29%+48%Headers−18%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−39%+16%Centre−23%−7%Right side−20%+13%Open play−20%+11%Counter-attacks−77%−18%Set pieces−15%+3%Headers−36%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneKilmarnock

1.33xG1.04
1.59xG against2.21
48%Possession42%
9.9Shots10.2
14.0Shots against18.5
3.4Shots on target4.0
2.4Big chances1.6
18.4Touches in the opposition box20.1
441Passes378
80%Pass accuracy77%
3.2Corners4.6
49%Field tilt39%
39.7Final-third entries36.9
10.9Box entries10.5
18.3Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.591.52
Ahead210.831.90
Behind231.251.44

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.121–1
16–300.200.202–1
31–450.290.321–2
46–600.330.312–4
61–750.130.211–1
76–900.200.423–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 8Smith 5Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 2Diabate 7Foulds 1Alić 6Foulds 2McAlear 7Stanton 1Holt 8Stanton 4Campbell 2Smith 1Paton 2Cotterill 2Gullan 2Paton 3Steven 3Gullan 2Fowler 7Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 August 2026St. Johnstone4–3KilmarnockxG 2.03–0.92
3 May 2025St. Johnstone0–2KilmarnockxG 1.43–1.39
15 February 2025Kilmarnock3–1St. JohnstonexG 1.40–0.67
23 November 2024St. Johnstone1–0KilmarnockxG 1.02–0.45
11 August 2024Kilmarnock0–3St. JohnstonexG 1.74–1.79
13 April 2024St. Johnstone0–2KilmarnockxG 1.22–3.51

15 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 9, Kilmarnock won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 22–19 and xG 1.27–1.27 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler7557510.560.05
Alić6540100.030.16
Stanton6545010.090.05
Diabate7593100.070.02

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.