Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v Dundee United

Saturday 13 February 2027, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 27

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.431.33
Win39%34%
Expected Points1.431.30
Clean sheet26%24%

Kilmarnock 39%Draw 27%Dundee United 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 57%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%6%2%8%8%4%1%6%9%6%3%3%4%3%1%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

Dundee United

  1. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  2. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  3. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  4. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  5. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13
  6. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position12th6th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠53–⁠2–⁠3
Points5 (0.62 per game)11 (1.38 per game)
Expected Points per game0.811.49
Goals7–⁠1810–⁠11
xG per game1.04–⁠2.211.62–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 0.73–⁠2.921.25, 1.79–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.491.50, 1.44–⁠1.68
ManagerNeil McCann (24)Jim Goodwin (96)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thDundee United1.25, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58, 12thDundee United1.43, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17Dundee United attack: 1.251.251.17Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.58Dundee United defence: 1.431.581.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+41%−24%+17%
Counter-attacks−77%+88%+57%−71%
Set pieces−15%+48%+64%−23%
Penalties−100%−40%−40%−40%
Headers−36%+137%+1%−39%
Left side−39%+57%−18%+12%
Centre−23%+80%+3%−2%
Right side−20%−5%+43%−21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−39%−21%Centre−23%−2%Right side−20%+12%Open play−20%+17%Counter-attacks−77%−71%Set pieces−15%−23%Headers−36%−39%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−18%−5%Centre+3%+80%Right side+43%+57%Open play−24%+41%Counter-attacks+57%+88%Set pieces+64%+48%Headers+1%+137%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

1.04xG1.62
2.21xG against1.46
42%Possession50%
10.2Shots16.1
18.5Shots against15.4
4.0Shots on target5.4
1.6Big chances2.4
20.1Touches in the opposition box30.0
378Passes398
77%Pass accuracy78%
4.6Corners6.2
39%Field tilt46%
36.9Final-third entries39.0
10.5Box entries14.0
16.5Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level241.931.19
Ahead291.741.14
Behind361.301.89

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.383–3
16–300.160.160–1
31–450.490.235–1
46–600.210.300–3
61–750.250.220–3
76–900.280.172–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 8Rawlins 7Yoro 1Esselink 8Forbes 8Ferry 5Ciubotaru 3Camará 4Sevelj 3Iqbal 2Tait 6Agyei 4Cameron 3Yoro 2Randall 4Merghem 4Metsoko 3Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 1Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2026Kilmarnock0–4Dundee UnitedxG 1.13–3.42
2 May 2026Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.40–2.11
21 February 2026Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.05–0.50
29 November 2025Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.11–1.86
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 7, Dundee United won 3, and 6 were drawn. Goals 25–18 and xG 1.56–1.62 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall5506220.360.35
Bennie6457110.450.09
Tait6610000.090.15
Forbes8720100.120.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.