Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Kilmarnock

Saturday 23 January 2027, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 24

Forecast

HibernianKilmarnock
Expected goals1.801.00
Win56%20%
Expected Points1.910.85
Clean sheet37%17%

Hibernian 56%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianKilmarnock
Position10th12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠51–⁠2–⁠5
Points7 (0.88 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.330.81
Goals8–⁠127–⁠18
xG per game1.58–⁠1.651.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 1.56–⁠1.490.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.811.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerMarink Reedijk (1)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.32, 4thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 4thKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.321.17KilmarnockHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.27Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+6%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks−13%−1%−77%+88%
Set pieces+8%−6%−15%+48%
Penalties+80%+20%−100%−40%
Headers−35%+7%−36%+137%
Left side−11%−2%−39%+57%
Centre−25%+24%−23%+80%
Right side+20%−26%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−11%−5%Centre−25%+80%Right side+20%+57%Open play−15%+41%Counter-attacks−13%+88%Set pieces+8%+48%Headers−35%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−39%−26%Centre−23%+24%Right side−20%−2%Open play−20%+6%Counter-attacks−77%−1%Set pieces−15%−6%Headers−36%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianKilmarnock

1.58xG1.04
1.65xG against2.21
51%Possession42%
16.4Shots10.2
13.4Shots against18.5
4.4Shots on target4.0
2.0Big chances1.6
31.6Touches in the opposition box20.1
443Passes378
81%Pass accuracy77%
6.9Corners4.6
55%Field tilt39%
44.7Final-third entries36.9
15.0Box entries10.5
14.7Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 September 2026Hibernian0–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–2.21
4 April 2026Hibernian3–0KilmarnockxG 2.30–0.60
3 January 2026Kilmarnock1–3HibernianxG 0.44–2.78
10 August 2025Hibernian2–2KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.94
15 March 2025Kilmarnock1–1HibernianxG 0.64–2.01
29 December 2024Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 2.32–0.25

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 9, Kilmarnock won 2, and 5 were drawn. Goals 24–12 and xG 1.54–0.94 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.