Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Kilmarnock

Saturday 2 January 2027, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 22

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals2.070.87
Win65%14%
Expected Points2.150.64
Clean sheet42%13%

Hearts 65%Draw 21%Kilmarnock 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 11%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%4%2%2%1%10%10%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position3rd12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠21–⁠2–⁠5
Points16 (2.00 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.900.81
Goals19–⁠87–⁠18
xG per game2.02–⁠1.201.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.740.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.661.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerWouter Vrancken (8)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.52, 3rdKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 3rdKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.521.17KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.11Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+17%−21%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks−11%−53%−77%+88%
Set pieces+27%−8%−15%+48%
Penalties+140%−40%−100%−40%
Headers−10%−9%−36%+137%
Left side+45%−37%−39%+57%
Centre+25%+5%−23%+80%
Right side−34%−50%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+45%−5%Centre+25%+80%Right side−34%+57%Open play+17%+41%Counter-attacks−11%+88%Set pieces+27%+48%Headers−10%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−39%−50%Centre−23%+5%Right side−20%−37%Open play−20%−21%Counter-attacks−77%−53%Set pieces−15%−8%Headers−36%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

2.02xG1.04
1.20xG against2.21
54%Possession42%
16.8Shots10.2
9.5Shots against18.5
5.4Shots on target4.0
2.8Big chances1.6
29.9Touches in the opposition box20.1
445Passes378
79%Pass accuracy77%
7.4Corners4.6
59%Field tilt39%
38.2Final-third entries36.9
16.5Box entries10.5
12.1Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 September 2026Kilmarnock1–1HeartsxG 0.39–1.92
14 March 2026Kilmarnock1–0HeartsxG 1.27–1.06
3 December 2025Hearts1–1KilmarnockxG 2.19–1.80
18 October 2025Kilmarnock0–3HeartsxG 0.43–2.88
18 May 2025Kilmarnock0–1HeartsxG 1.07–0.68
25 January 2025Hearts3–2KilmarnockxG 2.51–1.05

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Kilmarnock won 4, and 6 were drawn. Goals 18–14 and xG 1.50–1.28 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.