Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Hibernian

Sunday 27 December 2026, 12:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 20

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.670.98
Win53%22%
Expected Points1.840.91
Clean sheet38%19%

Hearts 53%Draw 26%Hibernian 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position3rd10th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠22–⁠1–⁠5
Points16 (2.00 per game)7 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game1.901.33
Goals19–⁠88–⁠12
xG per game2.02–⁠1.201.58–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.740.25, 1.56–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.661.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerWouter Vrancken (8)Marink Reedijk (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.52, 3rdHibernian1.32, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 3rdHibernian1.27, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Hibernian attack: 1.321.521.32HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.11Hibernian defence: 1.271.271.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+17%−21%−15%+6%
Counter-attacks−11%−53%−13%−1%
Set pieces+27%−8%+8%−6%
Penalties+140%−40%+80%+20%
Headers−10%−9%−35%+7%
Left side+45%−37%−11%−2%
Centre+25%+5%−25%+24%
Right side−34%−50%+20%−26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+45%−26%Centre+25%+24%Right side−34%−2%Open play+17%+6%Counter-attacks−11%−1%Set pieces+27%−6%Headers−10%+7%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−11%−50%Centre−25%+5%Right side+20%−37%Open play−15%−21%Counter-attacks−13%−53%Set pieces+8%−8%Headers−35%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

2.02xG1.58
1.20xG against1.65
54%Possession51%
16.8Shots16.4
9.5Shots against13.4
5.4Shots on target4.4
2.8Big chances2.0
29.9Touches in the opposition box31.6
445Passes443
79%Pass accuracy81%
7.4Corners6.9
59%Field tilt55%
38.2Final-third entries44.7
16.5Box entries15.0
12.1Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2026Hibernian1–3HeartsxG 1.47–0.86
26 April 2026Hibernian1–2HeartsxG 0.54–1.83
10 February 2026Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.66–0.38
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 7, Hibernian won 4, and 7 were drawn. Goals 24–17 and xG 1.11–1.25 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.