Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee United v Kilmarnock

Saturday 19 December 2026, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 19

Forecast

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Expected goals1.711.12
Win51%24%
Expected Points1.770.98
Clean sheet33%18%

Dundee United 51%Draw 25%Kilmarnock 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+6%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%6%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  2. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  3. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  4. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  5. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13
  6. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Position6th12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠31–⁠2–⁠5
Points11 (1.38 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.490.81
Goals10–⁠117–⁠18
xG per game1.62–⁠1.461.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.79–⁠1.230.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.44–⁠1.681.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerJim Goodwin (96)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.25, 6thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.43, 6thKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee United attack: 1.25Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.251.17KilmarnockDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee United defence: 1.43Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%+17%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks+57%−71%−77%+88%
Set pieces+64%−23%−15%+48%
Penalties−40%−40%−100%−40%
Headers+1%−39%−36%+137%
Left side−18%+12%−39%+57%
Centre+3%−2%−23%+80%
Right side+43%−21%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−18%−5%Centre+3%+80%Right side+43%+57%Open play−24%+41%Counter-attacks+57%+88%Set pieces+64%+48%Headers+1%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−39%−21%Centre−23%−2%Right side−20%+12%Open play−20%+17%Counter-attacks−77%−71%Set pieces−15%−23%Headers−36%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

1.62xG1.04
1.46xG against2.21
50%Possession42%
16.1Shots10.2
15.4Shots against18.5
5.4Shots on target4.0
2.4Big chances1.6
30.0Touches in the opposition box20.1
398Passes378
78%Pass accuracy77%
6.2Corners4.6
46%Field tilt39%
39.0Final-third entries36.9
14.0Box entries10.5
12.2Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level241.931.19
Ahead291.741.14
Behind361.301.89

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.383–3
16–300.160.160–1
31–450.490.235–1
46–600.210.300–3
61–750.250.220–3
76–900.280.172–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 8Rawlins 7Yoro 1Esselink 8Forbes 8Ferry 5Ciubotaru 3Camará 4Sevelj 3Iqbal 2Tait 6Agyei 4Cameron 3Yoro 2Randall 4Merghem 4Metsoko 3Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 1Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 August 2026Kilmarnock0–4Dundee UnitedxG 1.13–3.42
2 May 2026Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.40–2.11
21 February 2026Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.05–0.50
29 November 2025Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.11–1.86
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 3, Kilmarnock won 7, and 6 were drawn. Goals 18–25 and xG 1.62–1.56 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall5506220.360.35
Bennie6457110.450.09
Tait6610000.090.15
Forbes8720100.120.04

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.