Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Kilmarnock

Saturday 5 December 2026, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 17

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.781.03
Win54%21%
Expected Points1.870.88
Clean sheet36%17%

Motherwell 54%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%6%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%10%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  2. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  3. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  4. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  5. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16
  6. D3–330 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.45–2.92

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position9th12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠41–⁠2–⁠5
Points8 (1.00 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.270.81
Goals9–⁠137–⁠18
xG per game1.51–⁠1.871.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.110.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.61–⁠2.631.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerAlfred Johansson (8)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackMotherwell1.30, 5thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.30Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.301.17KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%+1%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks−12%+81%−77%+88%
Set pieces−42%average−15%+48%
Penalties+20%+80%−100%−40%
Headers−43%−1%−36%+137%
Left side−32%−13%−39%+57%
Centre−31%+19%−23%+80%
Right side+58%+22%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−32%−5%Centre−31%+80%Right side+58%+57%Open play+6%+41%Counter-attacks−12%+88%Set pieces−42%+48%Headers−43%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−39%+22%Centre−23%+19%Right side−20%−13%Open play−20%+1%Counter-attacks−77%+81%Set pieces−15%averageHeaders−36%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.51xG1.04
1.87xG against2.21
58%Possession42%
14.0Shots10.2
16.4Shots against18.5
4.4Shots on target4.0
2.1Big chances1.6
24.6Touches in the opposition box20.1
571Passes378
88%Pass accuracy77%
5.1Corners4.6
59%Field tilt39%
50.8Final-third entries36.9
14.1Box entries10.5
14.8Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.601.37
Ahead172.361.40
Behind401.082.49

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.181–2
16–300.280.342–1
31–450.270.242–5
46–600.140.460–3
61–750.280.262–0
76–900.220.392–2

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 8Sparrow 8Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 1Moormann 8Longelo 7Williams 1Fadinger 8Priestman 2Hodge 5Levitt 1Maswanhise 4Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 4Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 4Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 2Maswanhise 2Lowry 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 January 2026Motherwell4–0KilmarnockxG 2.72–0.46
22 November 2025Kilmarnock1–3MotherwellxG 1.73–2.24
30 August 2025Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.76–1.20
14 May 2025Motherwell3–0KilmarnockxG 2.57–0.53
5 April 2025Kilmarnock2–0MotherwellxG 1.22–0.18
8 January 2025Kilmarnock0–0MotherwellxG 1.72–0.39

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Kilmarnock won 5, and 6 were drawn. Goals 26–20 and xG 1.29–1.10 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise6491120.600.05
Lowry6534210.260.23
Longelo8656000.080.24
Fadinger8689100.180.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.