Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 0–5 Celtic

Saturday 12 September 2020, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 7 · Half-time 0–2 · Attendance 300

Celtic Edouard 4' (pen), Ajeti 20', Duffy 59', Ajer 64', Klimala 75'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyCeltic
Goals05
xG0.813.32
Non-penalty xG0.812.53
Expected Points0.132.80

Ross County 2%Draw 7%Celtic 91%

Most likely score 1–3, 13%. Final score 0–5, 5%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%8%5%2%3%8%5%2%3%5%4%2%1%13%10%13%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTShaw on for McKay, 32'Draper on for Tillson, 65'Charles-Cook on for Gardyne, 79'Kelly on for Vigurs, 80'Klimala on for Ajeti, 62'Elyounoussi on for Ntcham and Christie on for Edouard, 71'Turnbull on for Brown, 77'Soro on for McGregor, 78'Edouard 4' (pen)Ajeti 20'Duffy 59'Ajer 64'Klimala 75'Celtic 3.32Ross County 0.81012340153045607590HTShaw on for McKay, 32'Draper on for Tillson, 65'Charles-Cook on for Gardyne, 79'Kelly on for Vigurs, 80'Klimala on for Ajeti, 62'Elyounoussi on for Ntcham and Christie on for Edouard, 71'Turnbull on for Brown, 77'Soro on for McGregor, 78'Edouard 4' (pen)Ajeti 20'Duffy 59'Ajer 64'Klimala 75'3.320.81Ross CountyCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyCeltic

0.81 −0.67xG3.32 +0.74
0.81Non-penalty xG2.53
1.25 +0.44xG on target3.08 −0.02
9 −2Shots18 −2
5 +1.8Shots on target10 +2.0
1 −1.0Big chances4 +0.2
42% −9Possession58% −12
390 −14Passes545 −62
83% +12Pass accuracy87% 0
52% +2Field tilt48% −36
50 +16Final-third entries40 −39
8 +0.7Box entries18 −3.2
23.7 +12.0Passes per defensive action12.6 +2.8
4 +0.2Corners7 −0.5
13 0Tackles19 +7
9 −1.2Interceptions11 +3.8
16 −12Clearances14 0
4 +1.2Saves5 +4.2
13 −3Fouls11 0
3 +1.3Offsides2 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Stewart 48', 0.34 xGStewart 72', 0.10 xGMcKay 24', 0.07 xGStewart 31', 0.07 xGShaw 80', 0.07 xGShaw 70', 0.05 xGDraper 72', 0.05 xGVigurs 14', 0.04 xGRandall 18', 0.03 xG15%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals62%0.51 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.51 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals12%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Klimala 69', 0.62 xGAjer 84', 0.13 xGEdouard 28', 0.06 xGForrest 35', 0.05 xGForrest 50', 0.05 xGBrown 53', 0.05 xGAjer 16', 0.04 xGFrimpong 77', 0.04 xGChristie 90+2', 0.04 xGForrest 29', 0.03 xGMcGregor 48', 0.03 xGDuffy 69', 0.02 xGAjer 83', 0.02 xGAjer 64', 0.72 xG, goalKlimala 75', 0.38 xG, goalAjeti 20', 0.15 xG, goalDuffy 59', 0.11 xG, goal57%1.44 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.44 xG, 2 goals30%0.76 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.76 xG, 2 goals7%0.18 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals4%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyCeltic

0.55 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.32 10 shots, 1 goal
0.26 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.21 7 shots, 3 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Ross County 0.00, Celtic 0.79 xG
Celtic ahead
88 min (96%) · Ross County 0.81, Celtic 2.53 xG

Line-ups

122516431172224279LaidlawRandallDonaldsonIacovittiReidVigursGardyneTillsonPatonStewartMcKayYellow card80'79'65'32'Ross County 4-1-4-1Stuart Kettlewell142353021842491022BarkasDuffyJullienAjerFrimpongNtchamBrownMcGregorForrestAjetiEdouardGoalGoalYellow cardGoalGoal71'77'78'62'71'Celtic 3-1-4-2Neil Lennon

Ross County substitutes

  • 32' Shaw for McKay
  • 65' Draper for Tillson
  • 79' Charles-Cook for Gardyne
  • 80' Kelly for Vigurs

Celtic substitutes

  • 62' Klimala for Ajeti · goal 75'
  • 71' Elyounoussi for Ntcham · 1 assist
  • 71' Christie for Edouard
  • 77' Turnbull for Brown
  • 78' Soro for McGregor

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0210
RandallRB900.030.0310.11129
DonaldsonCB900.000.0200.0648
IacovittiCB900.000.0100.0568
ReidLB900.000.2110.31105
VigursDM800.040.0200.0352
GardyneRM790.000.2520.0560
Tillson CM650.000.110−0.1025
PatonCM900.000.0400.0732
StewartLM900.500.0500.0853
McKayST320.070.1010.1410
ShawFW580.120.010−0.0601
DraperDF250.050.010−0.0110
Charles-CookFW110.000.0000.0010
KellyMF100.000.000−0.0100

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BarkasGK900.000.0000.0100
DuffyCB9010.130.0110.07213
JullienCB900.000.0000.0426
Ajer CB9010.910.0420.15126
FrimpongDM900.040.0610.1142
NtchamRWB7110.000.6520.27104
BrownCM770.050.0300.0246
McGregorCM7810.030.5220.1492
ForrestLWB900.130.0910.10112
AjetiST6210.150.0200.0712
EdouardST7110.850.4420.2340
KlimalaFW2811.000.0000.0110
ElyounoussiMF1910.000.1420.0611
ChristieMF190.040.3610.0221
TurnbullMF130.000.0110.0110
SoroMF120.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Randall and Vigurs: 3 passesRandall and Paton: 3 passesIacovitti and Reid: 3 passesVigurs and Gardyne: 3 passesVigurs and Paton: 3 passesPaton and Stewart: 3 passesPaton and McKay: 3 passesRandall and McKay: 4 passesReid and Paton: 4 passesGardyne and Paton: 4 passesReid and Gardyne: 5 passesGardyne and McKay: 5 passesRandall and Stewart: 6 passesReid and McKay: 6 passesVigurs and McKay: 7 passesReid and Vigurs: 12 passesLaidlaw: 2 completed passesRandall: 11 completed passesIacovitti: 4 completed passesDonaldson: 3 completed passesReid: 20 completed passesVigurs: 17 completed passesGardyne: 11 completed passesPaton: 10 completed passesTillson: 4 completed passesStewart: 5 completed passesMcKay: 13 completed passes121625431172422279LaidlawRandallIacovittiDonaldsonReidVigursGardynePatonTillsonStewartMcKayStarters until 32' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Duffy and McGregor: 5 passesAjer and Brown: 5 passesBrown and McGregor: 5 passesMcGregor and Ajeti: 5 passesJullien and Forrest: 6 passesAjer and Edouard: 6 passesBrown and Frimpong: 7 passesBrown and Forrest: 7 passesFrimpong and Edouard: 7 passesJullien and Brown: 8 passesBarkas and Jullien: 9 passesBarkas and Ajer: 11 passesForrest and Edouard: 11 passesDuffy and Brown: 12 passesNtcham and McGregor: 13 passesBrown and Ntcham: 14 passesBarkas and Duffy: 16 passesFrimpong and Ntcham: 17 passesDuffy and Ntcham: 18 passesAjer and McGregor: 19 passesDuffy and Frimpong: 20 passesAjer and Forrest: 20 passesJullien and Ajer: 21 passesJullien and Duffy: 22 passesMcGregor and Forrest: 31 passesBarkas: 28 completed passesJullien: 38 completed passesDuffy: 48 completed passesAjer: 45 completed passesBrown: 34 completed passesFrimpong: 33 completed passesNtcham: 36 completed passesMcGregor: 41 completed passesForrest: 42 completed passesEdouard: 13 completed passesAjeti: 7 completed passes124358302142492210BarkasJullienDuffyAjerBrownFrimpongNtchamMcGregorForrestEdouardAjetiStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
VigursReid18
ReidGardyne15
ReidVigurs14
RandallStewart13
StewartRandall11

Celtic

FromToPasses
ForrestMcGregor23
JullienDuffy18
DuffyFrimpong17
AjerForrest17
AjerJullien16

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

9+2.813+7.211−0.23−4.37−1.78+2.24−2.39+0.26−3.73−3.28+3.55+0.23−1.02−3.76+0.24+1.52−1.54+0.55−0.54+2.70−1.01+0.21−0.820.00−1.01+0.71+0.70−0.71+0.28−7.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Celtic

4+1.050.014+7.511+7.86+0.86+1.02−3.23−1.04−2.85−3.59+5.87+1.01−1.25−0.59+1.83−0.52−1.01−1.55+1.52−2.51−0.88+6.83+1.84+2.52−2.200.00−0.50−1.00−0.50−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.040.020.010.040.020.010.030.020.020.030.110.010.020.070.04−0.030.05−0.01−0.02−0.100.34LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.010.020.060.030.030.040.020.050.030.030.050.020.040.030.090.050.070.100.050.110.040.160.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackRoss County0.78 → 0.83Celtic1.53 → 1.83Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.12 → 1.25Celtic0.27 → 0.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six33%30%−3
11th8%9%+1
Bottom4%5%+1
Celtic
Title58%62%+4
Rangers
Title41%38%−3
St. Johnstone
Top six38%39%+1
11th7%7%0
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (12 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyCeltic
Expected goals0.271.76
Win5%75%
Expected Points0.352.45
Clean sheet17%77%

Ross County 5%Draw 21%Celtic 75%

Most likely score 0–1, 23%. Both sides score 20%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+13%12%5%2%3%6%5%3%1%23%20%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawCeltic win
Ross County
Top six33%51%39%30%
11th8%4%7%9%
Bottom4%2%3%5%
Celtic
Title58%49%49%62%
Rangers
Title41%50%50%38%
St. Johnstone
Top six38%33%37%39%
11th7%11%7%7%
Bottom4%3%3%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–129 AugLivingston (A)xG 0.38–1.31
  2. D1–122 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.21–1.31
  3. L1–215 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.42–1.34
  4. D2–212 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.02–1.06
  5. W1–08 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.50–0.45
  6. W1–03 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.33–1.96

Celtic

  1. W3–030 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.06–0.22
  2. W1–022 AugDundee United (A)xG 3.00–0.29
  3. D1–19 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 0.74–1.06
  4. W5–12 AugHamilton Academical (H)xG 4.51–0.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyCeltic
Position5th3rd
Played64
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠23–⁠1–⁠0
Points8 (1.33 per game)10 (2.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.522.36
Goals6–⁠610–⁠2
xG per game1.48–⁠1.242.58–⁠0.51
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.59–⁠1.453.00, 3.29–⁠0.34
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 1.36–⁠1.022.00, 1.87–⁠0.68
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (6)Neil Lennon (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackRoss County0.78, 7thCeltic1.53, 1stDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.12, 8thCeltic0.27, 1st

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.01 Aug30 AugRoss County attack: 0.78Celtic attack: 1.531.530.78CelticRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.01 Aug30 AugRoss County defence: 1.12Celtic defence: 0.271.120.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%average+88%−51%
Counter-attacks−100%−24%+569%−67%
Set pieces+32%−17%−6%−41%
Penalties+100%average−67%+33%
Headers+50%+1%−41%−31%
Left side+17%−7%+61%−53%
Centre−25%−10%+90%−54%
Right side+44%+6%+83%−34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdCeltic concededLeft side+17%−34%Centre−25%−54%Right side+44%−53%Open play−2%−51%Counter-attacks−100%−67%Set pieces+32%−41%Headers+50%−31%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRoss County concededLeft side+61%+6%Centre+90%−10%Right side+83%−7%Open play+88%averageCounter-attacks+569%−24%Set pieces−6%−17%Headers−41%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyCeltic

1.48xG2.58
1.24xG against0.51
51%Possession70%
11.2Shots20.5
11.7Shots against6.2
3.2Shots on target8.0
2.0Big chances3.8
404Passes607
71%Pass accuracy87%
3.8Corners7.5
50%Field tilt84%
34.5Final-third entries78.9
7.3Box entries21.2
11.7Passes per defensive action9.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.590.89
Ahead220.402.01
Behind182.511.24

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level551.820.31
Ahead353.770.82
Behind0––

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.191–1
16–300.260.102–0
31–450.200.240–1
46–600.170.210–1
61–750.220.291–2
76–900.340.222–1

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.101–0
16–300.270.261–1
31–450.670.062–1
46–600.450.012–0
61–750.480.071–0
76–900.570.023–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 6Randall 5Donaldson 1Donaldson 5Watson 1Iacovitti 6Reid 5Stewart 1Draper 3Tillson 2Gardyne 1Vigurs 5Gardyne 2Erwin 2Randall 1Paton 3Vigurs 1Draper 1Stewart 4Gardyne 1Tremarco 1McKay 5Stewart 14-2-3-1 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 3Bain 1Frimpong 3Elhamed 1Jullien 4Ajer 3Bitton 1Taylor 4Brown 3McGregor 4Forrest 1Forrest 2Christie 2Ntcham 2Christie 1Elyounoussi 1Elyounoussi 3Edouard 1Edouard 2Brown 1Christie 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart6536210.570.07
Vigurs6506000.010.10
Donaldson6474100.040.01
Iacovitti6540000.030.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.