Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 2–2 Celtic

Wednesday 20 January 2021, 20:15 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 18 · Half-time 1–2

Livingston Brown 15', Emmanuel-Thomas 60'

Celtic Elyounoussi 28', Bitton 38' · Brown sent off 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonCeltic
Goals22
xG0.771.69
Expected Points0.682.06

Livingston 14%Draw 27%Celtic 60%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 2–2, 5%.

Celtic goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+6%6%2%6%7%2%2%5%5%2%13%12%16%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBrown (Celtic), red card 83'Reilly on for Hamilton and Kabia on for Forrest, 58'Devlin on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 66'Robinson on for McMillan, 75'Klimala on for Griffiths, 70'Frimpong on for Ajer and Brown on for Soro, 78'Johnston on for Turnbull, 82'Brown 15'Emmanuel-Thomas 60'Elyounoussi 28'Bitton 38'Celtic 1.69Livingston 0.7700.511.520153045607590HTBrown (Celtic), red card 83'Reilly on for Hamilton and Kabia on for Forrest, 58'Devlin on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 66'Robinson on for McMillan, 75'Klimala on for Griffiths, 70'Frimpong on for Ajer and Brown on for Soro, 78'Johnston on for Turnbull, 82'Brown 15'Emmanuel-Thomas 60'Elyounoussi 28'Bitton 38'1.690.77LivingstonCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonCeltic

0.77 −0.51xG1.69 −0.30
0.78 −0.36xG on target1.52 −0.69
6 −5Shots18 0
2 −1.0Shots on target6 −0.8
2 +0.4Big chances2 −0.7
8 −11Touches in the opposition box33 +6
31% −17Possession69% +3
243 −101Passes549 −30
54% −6Pass accuracy78% −6
21% −30Field tilt79% +7
20 −13Final-third entries61 −6
1 −8.1Box entries17 +0.5
17.4 +5Passes per defensive action8.5 −2
4 −1.0Corners7 +0.8
21 +5Tackles9 −4
18 +6.4Interceptions13 +3.2
24 +6Clearances19 +4
4 +2.2Saves0 −1.4
10 −4Fouls10 −2
2 0.0Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Forrest 1', 0.03 xGForrest 17', 0.03 xGKabia 76', 0.03 xGPittman 89', 0.03 xGEmmanuel-Thomas 60', 0.40 xG, goalBrown 15', 0.24 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%0.64 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.64 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Ajer 45+1', 0.53 xGDuffy 28', 0.10 xGGriffiths 18', 0.08 xGChristie 63', 0.08 xGGriffiths 31', 0.07 xGElyounoussi 9', 0.06 xGDuffy 28', 0.06 xGElyounoussi 73', 0.06 xGTaylor 73', 0.05 xGMcGregor 27', 0.04 xGElyounoussi 56', 0.04 xGBitton 56', 0.04 xGSoro 22', 0.03 xGTurnbull 48', 0.03 xGGriffiths 61', 0.03 xGGriffiths 67', 0.03 xGBitton 38', 0.25 xG, goalElyounoussi 28', 0.09 xG, goal9%0.16 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals76%1.28 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.28 xG, 2 goals5%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals8%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonCeltic

0.53 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.50 10 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.53 1 shot, 0 goals
0.24 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.65 7 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (60%) · Livingston 0.34, Celtic 0.64 xG
Livingston ahead
13 min (14%) · Livingston 0.03, Celtic 0.40 xG
Celtic ahead
23 min (25%) · Livingston 0.40, Celtic 0.64 xG

Line-ups

15273213381291138McCrorieFitzwaterGuthrieBrownMcMillanLawsonPittmanSerranoEmmanuel-ThomasForrestHamiltonGoalGoal75'66'58'58'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale13564312421714279BarkasAjerBittonDuffyTaylorSoroMcGregorChristieTurnbullElyounoussiGriffithsGoalGoal78'78'82'70'Celtic 4-2-3-1Neil Lennon

Livingston substitutes

  • 58' Kabia for Forrest
  • 58' Reilly for Hamilton
  • 66' Devlin for Emmanuel-Thomas
  • 75' Robinson for McMillan

Celtic substitutes

  • 70' Klimala for Griffiths
  • 78' Frimpong for Ajer
  • 78' Brown for Soro · red card 83'
  • 82' Johnston for Turnbull

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0772
FitzwaterCB900.000.0100.0449
GuthrieCB900.000.0000.0627
BrownCB90110.240.1510.08411
McMillanRWB750.000.0000.0006
LawsonCM900.000.0100.0016
PittmanCM900.030.000−0.0117
SerranoLWB9010.000.0620.0349
Emmanuel-ThomasAM6610.400.0000.0015
ForrestAM580.060.0000.0114
HamiltonST580.000.0010.0000
KabiaMF320.030.0100.0101
ReillyFW320.000.010−0.0101
DevlinDF240.000.000−0.0102
RobinsonMF150.000.0000.0310

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BarkasGK900.000.0000.0441
AjerRB780.530.0400.13125
BittonCB9010.300.0200.12118
DuffyCB900.160.0700.0859
TaylorLB900.050.2030.34192
SoroDM780.030.0200.0332
McGregorDM9010.040.1320.1351
ChristieRW900.080.0910.0986
TurnbullAM820.030.5650.1780
ElyounoussiLW9010.250.2720.0822
GriffithsST7010.220.061−0.0201
KlimalaFW200.000.0000.0002
FrimpongDF120.000.0000.0120
Brown MF50.000.0000.0002
JohnstonFW80.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

McCrorie and Guthrie: 3 passesMcCrorie and Lawson: 3 passesFitzwater and McMillan: 3 passesLawson and Hamilton: 3 passesPittman and Forrest: 3 passesFitzwater and Emmanuel-Thomas: 4 passesBrown and Lawson: 4 passesSerrano and Lawson: 4 passesSerrano and Pittman: 4 passesFitzwater and Lawson: 6 passesMcCrorie and Emmanuel-Thomas: 7 passesSerrano and Forrest: 8 passesMcCrorie: 9 completed passesFitzwater: 10 completed passesBrown: 10 completed passesGuthrie: 9 completed passesMcMillan: 8 completed passesSerrano: 11 completed passesLawson: 13 completed passesPittman: 6 completed passesEmmanuel-Thomas: 7 completed passesForrest: 7 completed passesHamilton: 5 completed passes15327211233891138McCrorieFitzwaterBrownGuthrieMcMillanSerranoLawsonPittmanEmmanuel-ThomasForrestHamiltonStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Barkas and Bitton: 6 passesAjer and Elyounoussi: 6 passesDuffy and Elyounoussi: 6 passesChristie and Soro: 6 passesTaylor and Soro: 7 passesTaylor and Griffiths: 7 passesBitton and McGregor: 8 passesChristie and Turnbull: 8 passesSoro and Turnbull: 8 passesBarkas and Duffy: 10 passesBitton and Christie: 10 passesDuffy and Taylor: 11 passesMcGregor and Christie: 11 passesAjer and Turnbull: 12 passesBitton and Soro: 12 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 12 passesAjer and Bitton: 13 passesDuffy and Bitton: 16 passesTaylor and Elyounoussi: 17 passesAjer and Christie: 18 passesDuffy and McGregor: 20 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 21 passesTaylor and McGregor: 26 passesBarkas: 15 completed passesAjer: 32 completed passesDuffy: 37 completed passesBitton: 39 completed passesTaylor: 53 completed passesMcGregor: 49 completed passesChristie: 35 completed passesSoro: 27 completed passesTurnbull: 35 completed passesElyounoussi: 20 completed passesGriffiths: 12 completed passes13546342171214279BarkasAjerDuffyBittonTaylorMcGregorChristieSoroTurnbullElyounoussiGriffithsStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
McCrorieEmmanuel-Thomas7
ForrestSerrano5
LawsonMcCrorie4
LawsonFitzwater3
PittmanSerrano3

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorTaylor20
TaylorTurnbull18
BittonDuffy18
DuffyMcGregor16
TaylorElyounoussi15

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

6+1.06+1.228+17.59+4.09+4.19+0.84−2.87+0.49+1.312+2.85−0.26+0.85+1.08+2.55−1.62−2.52−2.31−2.01−3.07+2.64+1.02−0.42+0.91−0.54+1.40−1.50−0.50−0.71+0.40−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Celtic

6+1.55+0.112+2.44+0.25+0.26−1.93−2.86+1.86−0.96−2.49+3.44−1.74+0.83−1.65+1.240.05+1.97+2.94+0.13+1.10−2.10−1.93+0.61−1.71+0.70−0.60−0.80−0.70−0.93−3.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.030.030.020.010.02−0.010.020.02−0.010.010.020.01−0.010.010.050.06LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.020.040.040.020.040.020.020.030.020.040.010.070.010.030.100.10−0.030.080.080.100.02−0.020.200.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackLivingston1.11 → 1.13Celtic1.86 → 1.87Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.08 → 1.08Celtic0.79 → 0.81

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six95%96%+1
Celtic
Title1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (20 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonCeltic
Expected goals0.811.72
Win17%58%
Expected Points0.752.00
Clean sheet18%44%

Livingston 17%Draw 25%Celtic 58%

Most likely score 0–1, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Celtic goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%6%5%2%3%5%4%2%1%1%1%13%12%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawCeltic win
Livingston
Top six95%98%96%93%
Celtic
Title1%<1%<1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. D0–016 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.22–0.42
  2. W3–110 JanRoss County (H)xG 1.74–1.28
  3. W3–02 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.18–0.49
  4. W2–126 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–1.22
  5. W2–023 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 2.20–0.05
  6. W2–112 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–1.05

Celtic

  1. D0–016 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.42–1.22
  2. D1–111 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.83
  3. L0–12 JanRangers (A)xG 0.61–0.58
  4. W3–030 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.09–0.95
  5. W3–026 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 3.69–0.09
  6. W2–023 DecRoss County (H)xG 2.15–0.29

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonCeltic
Position5th2nd
Played2221
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠4–⁠913–⁠6–⁠2
Points31 (1.41 per game)45 (2.14 per game)
Expected Points per game1.491.90
Goals28–⁠2746–⁠16
xG per game1.28–⁠1.071.99–⁠1.00
Home: points, xG per game1.30, 1.14–⁠1.302.18, 1.80–⁠0.96
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.40–⁠0.882.10, 2.20–⁠1.05
ManagerDavid Martindale (7)Neil Lennon (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackLivingston1.11, 5thCeltic1.86, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.08, 4thCeltic0.79, 2nd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston attack: 1.11Celtic attack: 1.861.861.11CelticLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston defence: 1.08Celtic defence: 0.791.080.79

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+2%−27%+69%−39%
Counter-attacks−100%−75%+196%−42%
Set pieces+20%+9%+20%−1%
Penalties−24%+2%+33%+33%
Headers+10%+5%+1%−41%
Left side−9%−38%+66%−18%
Centre+26%−8%+57%−28%
Right side−22%−17%+56%−40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdCeltic concededLeft side−9%−40%Centre+26%−28%Right side−22%−18%Open play+2%−39%Counter-attacks−100%−42%Set pieces+20%−1%Headers+10%−41%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdLivingston concededLeft side+66%−17%Centre+57%−8%Right side+56%−38%Open play+69%−27%Counter-attacks+196%−75%Set pieces+20%+9%Headers+1%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonCeltic

1.28xG1.99
1.07xG against1.00
48%Possession66%
10.7Shots18.0
9.0Shots against8.5
3.0Shots on target6.8
1.6Big chances2.7
19.4Touches in the opposition box27.1
344Passes579
61%Pass accuracy85%
5.0Corners6.2
51%Field tilt72%
33.4Final-third entries66.6
9.1Box entries16.5
12.6Passes per defensive action10.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.130.97
Ahead171.341.01
Behind261.521.28

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.811.02
Ahead352.341.05
Behind91.580.74

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.095–2
16–300.240.222–10
31–450.120.242–5
46–600.230.218–8
61–750.240.145–0
76–900.260.176–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.154–2
16–300.290.158–2
31–450.350.085–2
46–600.340.208–3
61–750.380.216–3
76–900.390.2115–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 12McCrorie 10Devlin 20Robinson 1Ambrose 1Ambrose 9Fitzwater 6Guthrie 21Brown 6Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 12Brown 4Ambrose 2Bartley 18Pittman 2Holt 11Sibbald 9Forrest 2Mullin 7Robinson 6Pittman 3Pittman 14Bartley 3Robinson 1Forrest 12Sibbald 6Robinson 1Emmanuel-Thomas 5Robinson 3Tiffoney 34-2-3-1 in 12 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 12Hazard 5Bain 4Frimpong 14Elhamed 3Duffy 1Duffy 9Jullien 9Bitton 6Ajer 16Welsh 2Laxalt 9Taylor 7Edouard 2Soro 7Brown 7Christie 3McGregor 21Ntcham 2Forrest 1Christie 8Frimpong 4Forrest 3Turnbull 7Rogic 4Ntcham 4Edouard 6Elyounoussi 6Taylor 3Edouard 4Griffiths 4Ajeti 44-2-3-1 in 10 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-3-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 January 2021Celtic0–0LivingstonxG 0.42–1.22
19 September 2020Celtic3–2LivingstonxG 1.58–1.35

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 0, Celtic won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–3 and xG 1.29–1.00 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest141,278410.210.25
Emmanuel-Thomas5508100.330.04
Mullin8699220.100.19
Robinson131,177410.200.09

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard121,055720.820.18
Elyounoussi11872610.590.11
Turnbull8705420.250.41
Christie151,325360.310.28

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.