Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 3–3 Celtic

Sunday 25 October 2020, 12:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 1–0

Aberdeen Ferguson 43' (pen), 90' (pen), Hedges 65'

Celtic McGregor 52', Griffiths 76', Christie 78' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenCeltic
Goals33
xG2.762.04
Non-penalty xG1.191.25
Expected Points1.920.83

Aberdeen 56%Draw 25%Celtic 19%

Most likely score 3–2, 14%. Final score 3–3, 9%.

Celtic goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+3%3%2%1%8%6%2%2%10%9%3%4%6%4%1%1%1%12%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcLennan on for McGeouch, 26'Wright on for Watkins, 56'Cosgrove on for Edmondson, 57'Brown on for Ntcham and Griffiths on for Ajeti, 70'Turnbull on for Rogic, 86'Ferguson 43' (pen)Hedges 65'Ferguson 90' (pen)McGregor 52'Griffiths 76'Christie 78' (pen)Aberdeen 2.76Celtic 2.0401230153045607590HTMcLennan on for McGeouch, 26'Wright on for Watkins, 56'Cosgrove on for Edmondson, 57'Brown on for Ntcham and Griffiths on for Ajeti, 70'Turnbull on for Rogic, 86'Ferguson 43' (pen)Hedges 65'Ferguson 90' (pen)McGregor 52'Griffiths 76'Christie 78' (pen)2.762.04AberdeenCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenCeltic

2.76 +1.38xG2.04 −0.12
1.19Non-penalty xG1.25
3.08 +1.59xG on target3.28 +0.77
13 +1Shots14 −4
5 +0.5Shots on target7 +0.1
3 +1.2Big chances3 −0.2
23 −3Touches in the opposition box25 +4
38% −15Possession62% −6
282 −158Passes447 −164
65% −9Pass accuracy80% −7
34% −23Field tilt66% −7
31 −7Final-third entries57 −14
8 −2Box entries15 −2
13.9 0Passes per defensive action10.8 0
3 −2.2Corners5 −1.1
14 +2Tackles14 +2
12 +2.4Interceptions7 −1.6
22 +4Clearances17 +2
4 +2.7Saves2 +0.7
12 −2Fouls18 +7
1 +0.1Offsides2 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Cosgrove 65', 0.11 xGHedges 90+3', 0.10 xGFerguson 85', 0.07 xGMcCrorie 12', 0.05 xGCosgrove 88', 0.05 xGMcCrorie 68', 0.04 xGMcCrorie 7', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 34', 0.03 xGMcLennan 59', 0.02 xGFerguson 90+3', 0.02 xGHedges 65', 0.66 xG, goal55%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.66 xG, 1 goal27%0.32 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals15%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Christie 74', 0.30 xGChristie 27', 0.07 xGElyounoussi 27', 0.07 xGElyounoussi 45', 0.06 xGRogic 53', 0.06 xGLaxalt 57', 0.05 xGFrimpong 12', 0.03 xGNtcham 14', 0.03 xGElyounoussi 47', 0.03 xGNtcham 17', 0.02 xGMcGregor 61', 0.02 xGMcGregor 52', 0.44 xG, goalGriffiths 76', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals86%1.07 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.07 xG, 2 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals10%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenCeltic

1.09 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.07 9 shots, 2 goals
0.09 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 4 shots, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 2 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
61 min (66%) · Aberdeen 1.82, Celtic 1.14 xG
Aberdeen ahead
20 min (22%) · Aberdeen 0.04, Celtic 0.90 xG
Celtic ahead
12 min (13%) · Aberdeen 0.91, Celtic 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1314440195015171132LewisHobanTaylorConsidineMcCrorieFergusonWatkinsMcGeouchHayesHedgesEdmondsonYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardGoal56'26'57'Aberdeen 3-1-4-2Derek McInnes293043593422118171027BainFrimpongDuffyAjerLaxaltMcGregorNtchamRogicChristieAjetiElyounoussiGoalYellow cardGoal70'86'70'Celtic 4-2-3-1Neil Lennon

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 26' McLennan for McGeouch
  • 56' Wright for Watkins
  • 57' Cosgrove for Edmondson

Celtic substitutes

  • 70' Brown for Ntcham
  • 70' Griffiths for Ajeti · goal 76'
  • 86' Turnbull for Rogic

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0110
HobanCB900.000.0000.0104
TaylorCB900.000.0100.01511
ConsidineCB900.000.0100.0415
McCrorie DM900.150.0010.0104
Ferguson RWB9021.670.0400.0448
WatkinsCM560.000.0810.2312
McGeouchCM260.000.000−0.0102
HayesLWB900.000.0620.17115
HedgesST9010.760.2800.0943
EdmondsonST570.000.0000.0102
McLennanMF640.020.0000.0115
WrightFW340.000.1520.1650
CosgroveFW330.160.011−0.0710

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0210
FrimpongRB900.030.1020.23212
DuffyCB900.000.0100.0648
AjerCB900.000.0700.1795
LaxaltLB900.050.0520.0997
McGregor DM9010.460.1200.1596
NtchamDM700.050.0110.0341
RogicRW8620.060.2230.3231
ChristieAM9011.160.2430.0744
AjetiLW700.000.000−0.0100
ElyounoussiST900.160.0510.0781
BrownMF200.000.0000.0013
GriffithsFW2010.070.0000.0001
TurnbullMF40.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Hoban and McGeouch: 3 passesHoban and McCrorie: 3 passesMcGeouch and Hedges: 4 passesConsidine and Hayes: 5 passesWatkins and Hedges: 5 passesHayes and Hedges: 5 passesWatkins and Hayes: 8 passesLewis: 2 completed passesHoban: 9 completed passesTaylor: 5 completed passesConsidine: 8 completed passesMcGeouch: 6 completed passesMcCrorie: 1 completed passesFerguson: 4 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesHayes: 14 completed passesEdmondson: 1 completed passesHedges: 7 completed passes1314415401950173211LewisHobanTaylorConsidineMcGeouchMcCrorieFergusonWatkinsHayesEdmondsonHedgesStarters until 26' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Frimpong and Rogic: 6 passesDuffy and Ntcham: 6 passesBain and Duffy: 7 passesBain and Ajer: 7 passesLaxalt and Rogic: 7 passesNtcham and Christie: 7 passesMcGregor and Christie: 7 passesDuffy and Ajer: 8 passesMcGregor and Elyounoussi: 8 passesFrimpong and Ntcham: 9 passesDuffy and McGregor: 9 passesRogic and Elyounoussi: 9 passesMcGregor and Rogic: 10 passesNtcham and McGregor: 11 passesFrimpong and Duffy: 12 passesAjer and Laxalt: 12 passesAjer and McGregor: 12 passesChristie and Rogic: 13 passesAjer and Ntcham: 18 passesLaxalt and Elyounoussi: 18 passesFrimpong and Christie: 22 passesFrimpong and McGregor: 24 passesLaxalt and Ntcham: 27 passesBain: 18 completed passesFrimpong: 39 completed passesDuffy: 30 completed passesAjer: 40 completed passesLaxalt: 39 completed passesNtcham: 44 completed passesMcGregor: 47 completed passesChristie: 29 completed passesRogic: 23 completed passesElyounoussi: 20 completed passesAjeti: 8 completed passes293043593214217182710BainFrimpongDuffyAjerLaxaltNtchamMcGregorChristieRogicElyounoussiAjetiStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
HayesHedges10
ConsidineHayes7
WatkinsHayes6
HayesWatkins5
HayesConsidine5

Celtic

FromToPasses
FrimpongChristie16
McGregorFrimpong15
LaxaltNtcham14
NtchamLaxalt13
LaxaltElyounoussi13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

10+5.750.014+3.54−2.26+1.15−2.67+1.77+0.814+8.44−3.71−4.04−0.46+2.53−2.23−5.13−1.25+1.62−0.44−0.45+1.13+1.22+0.40−1.34+1.84+0.11+0.60−0.40−0.71+0.14+3.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Celtic

2−2.06+1.311+2.21−3.23−1.914+7.211+6.43−1.060.010+1.78+3.87+0.84+1.92−3.16+0.14+0.43−0.34+1.62−2.57+2.91−1.01−1.52+0.41−1.73+0.52+1.80−0.44+3.30−0.910.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.020.010.040.020.030.010.010.040.08−0.010.020.010.04−0.02−0.02−0.070.060.220.22LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.030.040.010.030.020.030.120.060.050.030.070.10−0.010.020.010.05−0.05−0.010.090.230.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackAberdeen1.17 → 1.32Celtic1.92 → 2.03Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.99 → 1.04Celtic0.57 → 0.75

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six98%98%0
Celtic
Title38%31%−7
Rangers
Title62%69%+7

From the forecast before the match (25 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenCeltic
Expected goals0.581.68
Win12%64%
Expected Points0.602.15
Clean sheet19%56%

Aberdeen 12%Draw 24%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 0–1, 17%. Both sides score 36%.

Celtic goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+11%8%3%1%6%11%9%5%2%2%3%2%1%17%15%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawCeltic win
Aberdeen
Top six98%>99%98%97%
Celtic
Title38%26%31%43%
Rangers
Title62%74%69%57%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W4–220 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.66–1.65
  2. D0–017 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.21–0.48
  3. W2–12 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.92–0.48
  4. W3–027 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.26–0.46
  5. L0–320 SepMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.75
  6. W1–012 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.76–0.49

Celtic

  1. L0–217 OctRangers (H)xG 0.55–1.50
  2. W2–04 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.71–0.63
  3. W3–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.94–0.60
  4. W3–219 SepLivingston (H)xG 1.58–1.35
  5. W2–116 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.18–1.12
  6. W5–012 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.32–0.81

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenCeltic
Position4th2nd
Played1010
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠1–⁠28–⁠1–⁠1
Points22 (2.20 per game)25 (2.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.652.10
Goals14–⁠825–⁠7
xG per game1.38–⁠0.912.16–⁠0.81
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.22–⁠1.212.40, 2.13–⁠0.83
Away: points, xG per game2.50, 1.62–⁠0.462.60, 2.19–⁠0.78
ManagerDerek McInnes (10)Neil Lennon (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackAberdeen1.17, 4thCeltic1.92, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.99, 3rdCeltic0.57, 2nd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctAberdeen attack: 1.17Celtic attack: 1.921.921.17CelticAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctAberdeen defence: 0.99Celtic defence: 0.570.990.57

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%−38%+77%−58%
Counter-attacks−79%+5%+338%+5%
Set pieces−22%−41%+16%−26%
Penalties+103%+2%+2%+2%
Headers−7%−42%−6%−47%
Left side−23%−47%+61%−38%
Centre−24%−32%+76%−44%
Right side+27%−38%+57%−57%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdCeltic concededLeft side−23%−57%Centre−24%−44%Right side+27%−38%Open play−2%−58%Counter-attacks−79%+5%Set pieces−22%−26%Headers−7%−47%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdAberdeen concededLeft side+61%−38%Centre+76%−32%Right side+57%−47%Open play+77%−38%Counter-attacks+338%+5%Set pieces+16%−41%Headers−6%−42%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenCeltic

1.38xG2.16
0.91xG against0.81
53%Possession68%
12.2Shots17.8
9.6Shots against7.4
4.5Shots on target6.9
1.8Big chances3.2
25.8Touches in the opposition box20.7
440Passes610
74%Pass accuracy86%
5.2Corners6.1
57%Field tilt73%
38.0Final-third entries71.3
10.5Box entries17.0
13.7Passes per defensive action10.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.550.67
Ahead301.671.22
Behind170.480.95

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level372.030.85
Ahead432.580.72
Behind100.861.00

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.310.151–2
16–300.140.123–2
31–450.250.143–1
46–600.230.093–1
61–750.190.241–2
76–900.270.153–0

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.193–2
16–300.270.255–2
31–450.430.044–1
46–600.360.144–1
61–750.480.123–0
76–900.380.076–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 10Hoban 7McCrorie 3Hayes 1Taylor 8McKenna 4Considine 7Hedges 3Kennedy 2Hernández 2Ferguson 8Wright 1Kennedy 1McCrorie 5Ojo 2Hedges 1Hayes 9Considine 1Wright 5Ferguson 2Watkins 1Watkins 7Hedges 3Edmondson 1Wright 3McGinn 3Ojo 13-4-1-2 in 5 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Celtic

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBarkas 9Bain 1Jullien 5Elhamed 4Frimpong 3Duffy 6Ajer 9Bitton 2Welsh 1Frimpong 4Forrest 3Christie 2Brown 8Christie 3Ntcham 5Elyounoussi 1Frimpong 1McGregor 10Forrest 1Taylor 5Elyounou… 3ElyounoussiLaxalt 1Elyounoussi 3Ajeti 3Klimala 2Edouard 6Taylor 3Christie 23-5-2 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watkins8676210.360.07
Ferguson10900600.380.05
Wright9659110.190.13
Hedges8712120.130.16

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard6525400.840.14
Christie7626240.320.36
Elyounoussi7483110.450.09
Forrest5484210.280.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.