Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 3–2 Hamilton Academical

Friday 2 October 2020, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 10 · Half-time 2–0

Hibernian Nisbet 19', 35', Hanlon 63'

Hamilton Academical Callachan 75' (pen), Porteous 84' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Hibernian	Hamilton Academical
Goals	3	2
xG	2.97	1.80
Non-penalty xG	2.97	0.22
Expected Points	2.17	0.61

Hibernian 65%Draw 22%Hamilton Academical 13%

Most likely score 3–2, 16%. Final score 3–2, 16%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHamilton Academical

2.97 +1.68xG1.80 +0.84

2.97Non-penalty xG0.22

4.47 +3.20xG on target2.76 +1.86

18 +7Shots8 −2

9 +5.6Shots on target4 +1.1

5 +3.7Big chances2 +1.2

33 +17Touches in the opposition box10 −10

57% +12Possession43% +2

530 +192Passes406 +120

82% +14Pass accuracy74% +14

64% +28Field tilt36% 0

59 +28Final-third entries44 +16

23 +13.3Box entries6 −2.5

18.9 +3Passes per defensive action13.1 −2

7 +1.9Corners2 −3.9

11 −4Tackles17 −1

8 −1.2Interceptions5 −6.8

15 −9Clearances23 0

3 0.0Saves6 +1.4

10 −3Fouls12 0

3 +1.1Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Hibernian

Hamilton Academical

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHamilton Academical

1.42 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.22 6 shots, 0 goals

1.54 6 shots, 3 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties1.58 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–02–03–03–1

Level: 19 min (21%) · Hibernian 0.84, Hamilton Academical 0.00 xG
Hibernian ahead: 73 min (79%) · Hibernian 2.12, Hamilton Academical 1.80 xG

Line-ups

Hibernian substitutes

46' Hallberg for Newell
77' Wright for Murphy
85' Mallan for Nisbet

Hamilton Academical substitutes

15' Munro for Want
46' Ogboe for Winter · penalty missed 56'
64' Owolabi for Martin
73' Smith for Templeton

Players

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Marciano	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
McGinn	RB	90			0.06	0.02	1	0.10	11	3
Porteous	CB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.07	8	6
Hanlon	CB	90	1		1.09	0.01	0	0.08	4	9
Stevenson	LB	90			0.00	0.29	2	0.26	15	4
Boyle	RM	90			0.17	0.31	2	0.36	11	0
Gogic	CM	90			0.00	0.03	1	−0.03	7	8
Newell	CM	46		1	0.00	0.19	2	0.07	2	2
Murphy	LM	77			0.06	0.20	1	0.33	13	0
Nisbet	ST	85	2		0.65	0.03	1	0.09	5	0
Doidge	ST	90		1	0.94	0.60	2	0.07	3	1
Hallberg	MF	44			0.00	0.11	0	0.02	3	3
Wright	DF	13			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	1	1
Mallan	MF	5			0.00	0.01	0	−0.01	0	0

Hamilton Academical

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Gourlay	GK	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
Hamilton	RB	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.08	9	3
Odoffin	CB	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.04	2	13
Want	CB	15		0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	3
McMann	LB	90		0.00	0.01	0	0.11	15	2
Hodson	RM	90		0.06	0.13	0	0.07	5	6
Collar	CM	90		0.00	0.02	1	0.01	5	7
Martin	CM	64		0.00	0.01	0	0.00	2	6
Callachan	LM	90	1	0.85	0.02	1	0.06	7	4
Templeton	ST	73		0.07	0.02	0	0.10	3	1
Winter	ST	46		0.00	0.02	1	−0.04	0	2
Munro	MF	75		0.00	0.01	0	0.06	8	2
Ogboe	FW	44		0.79	0.01	1	0.03	1	1
Owolabi	FW	26		0.03	0.00	0	0.00	1	0
Smith	FW	17		0.00	0.01	0	0.02	1	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Porteous	McGinn	20
Stevenson	Murphy	20
Hanlon	Stevenson	17
McGinn	Boyle	14
Stevenson	Hanlon	13

Hamilton Academical

From	To	Passes
Hodson	Callachan	12
Collar	Munro	9
Collar	Odoffin	8
Odoffin	Collar	8
Hamilton	Callachan	7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

Against its average of 9 matches

Hamilton Academical

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

Hamilton Academical

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hibernian
Top six	93%	96%	+3
11th	<1%	<1%	0
Hamilton Academical
Top six	5%	4%	−1
11th	21%	21%	0
Bottom	40%	45%	+5
St. Mirren
11th	22%	23%	+1
Bottom	23%	21%	−2
St. Johnstone
Top six	24%	24%	0
11th	11%	11%	0
Bottom	8%	7%	−1

From the forecast before the match (2 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Hibernian	Hamilton Academical
Expected goals	1.73	0.83
Win	58%	17%
Expected Points	1.99	0.76
Clean sheet	44%	18%

Hibernian 58%Draw 25%Hamilton Academical 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

From the forecast as it stood on 2 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Hibernian win	Draw	Hamilton Academical win
Hibernian
Top six	93%	96%	91%	88%
11th	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Hamilton Academical
Top six	5%	4%	6%	11%
11th	21%	21%	22%	21%
Bottom	40%	45%	37%	27%
St. Mirren
11th	22%	23%	21%	20%
Bottom	23%	21%	24%	27%
St. Johnstone
Top six	24%	24%	24%	24%
11th	11%	11%	10%	11%
Bottom	8%	7%	9%	10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

Hamilton Academical

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Hibernian	Hamilton Academical
Position	3rd	10th
Played	9	8
Won, drawn, lost	5–⁠2–⁠2	2–⁠1–⁠5
Points	17 (1.89 per game)	7 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.36	0.75
Goals	13–⁠8	6–⁠13
xG per game	1.29–⁠1.36	0.96–⁠2.37
Home: points, xG per game	1.25, 0.92–⁠1.58	0.25, 0.67–⁠2.35
Away: points, xG per game	2.40, 1.59–⁠1.19	1.50, 1.26–⁠2.39
Manager	Jack Ross (9)	Brian Rice (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Hibernian		Hamilton Academical
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−2%	−5%	−63%	+136%
Counter-attacks	−41%	−73%	−100%	+63%
Set pieces	−9%	+21%	+92%	+23%
Penalties	+22%	+22%	−100%	−100%
Headers	−1%	+6%	+32%	+19%
Left side	−15%	+24%	−23%	+133%
Centre	+7%	−30%	+7%	+113%
Right side	−18%	+32%	−57%	+48%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−15%+48%Centre+7%+113%Right side−18%+133%Open play−2%+136%Counter-attacks−41%+63%Set pieces−9%+23%Headers−1%+19%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdHibernian concededLeft side−23%+32%Centre+7%−30%Right side−57%+24%Open play−63%−5%Counter-attacks−100%−73%Set pieces+92%+21%Headers+32%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHamilton Academical

1.29xG0.96

1.36xG against2.37

45%Possession41%

10.9Shots10.0

14.3Shots against17.9

3.4Shots on target2.9

1.3Big chances0.8

16.0Touches in the opposition box20.0

338Passes286

68%Pass accuracy61%

5.1Corners5.9

36%Field tilt35%

30.7Final-third entries28.5

9.7Box entries8.5

16.1Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	43	1.37	1.31
Ahead	31	1.48	1.35
Behind	16	0.72	1.56

Hamilton Academical

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	39	1.06	2.49
Ahead	1	0.00	0.00
Behind	50	0.91	2.33

xG by period

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.20	0.17	2–1
16–30	0.20	0.12	3–0
31–45	0.28	0.40	3–4
46–60	0.08	0.27	1–2
61–75	0.25	0.10	2–0
76–90	0.28	0.30	2–1

Hamilton Academical

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.08	0.39	0–4
16–30	0.19	0.62	1–3
31–45	0.09	0.23	1–1
46–60	0.12	0.45	1–3
61–75	0.22	0.29	1–0
76–90	0.27	0.38	2–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Hamilton Academical

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Nisbet	7	616	4	1	0.66	0.09
Boyle	9	807	3	3	0.22	0.14
Doidge	8	733	3	0	0.28	0.05
Newell	9	745	1	1	0.04	0.20

Hamilton Academical

Player	Starts	Min	G	xG per 90	xA per 90
Odoffin	8	700	3	0.38	0.08
Callachan	6	550	0	0.17	0.04
McMann	7	616	0	0.02	0.13
Moyo	6	489	0	0.08	0.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.