Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 4–2 Hamilton Academical

Tuesday 20 October 2020, 19:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 3 · Half-time 4–1

Aberdeen Hoban 14', Ferguson 21', Edmondson 24', 31'

Hamilton Academical Moyo 32', Callachan 68' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHamilton Academical
Goals42
xG1.661.65
Non-penalty xG1.660.86
Expected Points1.321.37

Aberdeen 34%Draw 30%Hamilton Academical 36%

Most likely score 2–2, 13%. Final score 4–2, 2%.

Hamilton Academical goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+1%5%6%2%2%4%2%4%1%6%6%2%2%2%13%13%11%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMcLennan on for Hayes, 33'McCrorie on for Edmondson, 56'Ojo on for McGeouch, 57'McGinn on for Wright, 87'Trafford on for Martin, 57'Mimnaugh on for Collar, 63'Stirling on for Callachan and Smith on for Hughes, 80'Hoban 14'Ferguson 21'Edmondson 24'Edmondson 31'Moyo 32'Callachan 68' (pen)Aberdeen 1.66Hamilton Academical 1.6500.511.520153045607590HTMcLennan on for Hayes, 33'McCrorie on for Edmondson, 56'Ojo on for McGeouch, 57'McGinn on for Wright, 87'Trafford on for Martin, 57'Mimnaugh on for Collar, 63'Stirling on for Callachan and Smith on for Hughes, 80'Hoban 14'Ferguson 21'Edmondson 24'Edmondson 31'Moyo 32'Callachan 68' (pen)1.661.65AberdeenHamilton Academical

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHamilton Academical

1.66 +0.31xG1.65 +0.63
1.66Non-penalty xG0.86
2.45 +1.06xG on target1.53 +0.34
18 +6.4Shots11 +1.2
6 +1.7Shots on target5 +1.9
2 +0.2Big chances2 +1.1
31 +7Touches in the opposition box17 +3
53% 0Possession47% +5
426 −15Passes378 +69
68% −7Pass accuracy62% 0
62% +6Field tilt38% +1
38 0Final-third entries40 +9
18 +8.3Box entries6 −1.7
13.2 0Passes per defensive action10.9 −3
9 +4.2Corners2 −3.2
13 +1Tackles25 +7
17 +8.2Interceptions21 +10.2
12 −6Clearances15 −8
3 +1.9Saves2 −2.6
17 +3Fouls11 −1
0 −1.0Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Watkins 45', 0.13 xGHoban 78', 0.07 xGFerguson 16', 0.06 xGHoban 84', 0.06 xGWatkins 15', 0.05 xGMcGinn 90+3', 0.05 xGHayes 5', 0.04 xGHedges 6', 0.04 xGEdmondson 22', 0.04 xGTaylor 57', 0.04 xGFerguson 90+3', 0.04 xGHayes 7', 0.03 xGHedges 23', 0.03 xGWatkins 45', 0.03 xGHoban 14', 0.48 xG, goalEdmondson 31', 0.30 xG, goalEdmondson 24', 0.13 xG, goalFerguson 21', 0.03 xG, goal33%0.55 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.55 xG, 1 goal41%0.68 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.68 xG, 2 goals13%0.21 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals14%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hamilton Academical

Callachan 45+2', 0.06 xGCallachan 28', 0.05 xGMoyo 28', 0.05 xGMoyo 4', 0.04 xGOgboe 72', 0.04 xGCallachan 2', 0.03 xGOgboe 49', 0.03 xGMoyo 66', 0.03 xGCallachan 58', 0.02 xGMoyo 32', 0.50 xG, goal58%0.50 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.50 xG, 1 goal24%0.21 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals13%0.11 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHamilton Academical

0.91 12 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.79 8 shots, 1 goal
0.76 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.07 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
14 min (15%) · Aberdeen 0.59, Hamilton Academical 0.07 xG
Aberdeen ahead
81 min (85%) · Aberdeen 1.07, Hamilton Academical 1.58 xG

Line-ups

1314411191517253250LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHedgesFergusonMcGeouchHayesWrightEdmondsonWatkinsGoalGoalGoalGoal57'33'87'56'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes23272123348715920FultonHodsonOdoffinWantMcMannCallachanMartinCollarHughesOgboeMoyoYellow cardGoalGoal80'57'63'80'Hamilton Academical 4-4-2Brian Rice

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 33' McLennan for Hayes · yellow card 86'
  • 56' McCrorie for Edmondson
  • 57' Ojo for McGeouch
  • 87' McGinn for Wright

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 57' Trafford for Martin
  • 63' Mimnaugh for Collar
  • 80' Stirling for Callachan
  • 80' Smith for Hughes

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0100
HobanCB9010.620.0000.19311
TaylorCB900.040.0000.0238
ConsidineCB900.000.0200.131310
HedgesRWB9010.080.2320.0871
FergusonCM9010.120.021−0.0117
McGeouchCM570.000.0200.0552
HayesLWB3310.070.4530.2590
WrightAM870.000.1820.2021
EdmondsonST56210.480.0110.0210
WatkinsST900.210.081−0.0451
McLennan MF570.000.1130.14122
McCrorieMF340.000.0400.1031
OjoMF330.000.0000.0001
McGinnMF30.050.0100.0100

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK900.000.0000.0441
HodsonRB900.000.0200.0135
Odoffin CB900.000.0100.05616
WantCB900.000.0100.0439
McMannLB900.000.0520.0457
CallachanRM80110.960.2010.1874
MartinCM570.000.1100.14106
CollarCM630.000.0100.0455
HughesLM800.000.061−0.0213
OgboeST900.070.051−0.0102
MoyoST9010.620.1110.0122
TraffordMF330.000.010−0.0114
MimnaughDF270.000.0000.0001
StirlingDF100.000.000−0.0103
SmithFW100.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

McGeouch and Edmondson: 3 passesEdmondson and Watkins: 3 passesHoban and Hedges: 4 passesTaylor and Considine: 4 passesTaylor and Hayes: 4 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 4 passesHedges and McGeouch: 4 passesMcGeouch and Hayes: 4 passesFerguson and Wright: 5 passesFerguson and Watkins: 5 passesHayes and Wright: 5 passesConsidine and Watkins: 7 passesHayes and Edmondson: 7 passesHedges and Wright: 8 passesMcGeouch and Wright: 8 passesHayes and Watkins: 16 passesLewis: 4 completed passesHoban: 7 completed passesTaylor: 13 completed passesConsidine: 13 completed passesHedges: 12 completed passesMcGeouch: 14 completed passesFerguson: 11 completed passesHayes: 19 completed passesWright: 16 completed passesEdmondson: 8 completed passesWatkins: 20 completed passes1314411151917253250LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHedgesMcGeouchFergusonHayesWrightEdmondsonWatkinsStarters until 33' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hamilton Academical

Fulton and Odoffin: 4 passesOdoffin and Collar: 4 passesWant and Collar: 4 passesMcMann and Martin: 4 passesCollar and Ogboe: 4 passesMartin and Hughes: 4 passesHodson and Callachan: 5 passesHodson and Martin: 5 passesOdoffin and Want: 5 passesWant and McMann: 5 passesMcMann and Hughes: 5 passesCallachan and Moyo: 5 passesMcMann and Callachan: 6 passesMartin and Moyo: 6 passesCallachan and Collar: 7 passesCallachan and Ogboe: 7 passesCollar and Martin: 7 passesMcMann and Moyo: 8 passesOdoffin and Martin: 9 passesHodson and Odoffin: 11 passesMcMann and Collar: 11 passesCallachan and Martin: 14 passesFulton: 5 completed passesHodson: 17 completed passesOdoffin: 21 completed passesWant: 10 completed passesMcMann: 23 completed passesCallachan: 28 completed passesCollar: 24 completed passesMartin: 33 completed passesHughes: 10 completed passesMoyo: 12 completed passesOgboe: 8 completed passes23272123347815209FultonHodsonOdoffinWantMcMannCallachanCollarMartinHughesMoyoOgboeStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ConsidineWatkins11
HayesWatkins9
LewisConsidine8
WatkinsHayes7
WatkinsHedges6

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
CallachanMartin10
HodsonOdoffin10
McMannMoyo8
OdoffinWant7
CallachanOgboe7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

4−0.36+1.17−3.96−0.28+3.410+2.74−1.43−3.610+4.912+4.84−1.17+2.95+1.74−1.313+5.46+2.04+0.72−0.46+1.83−1.00−2.02+0.41−0.32−0.26+2.30−0.40−0.40−0.84+3.42+1.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Hamilton Academical

60.018+11.69−7.38+0.62−3.34−4.713+4.65−2.910−0.68+1.013+9.16+1.32−0.71−4.45−2.18+3.29+5.74+1.35+1.05+0.71−1.73+1.23+0.73+2.01−1.31+0.90−0.30−0.50−0.70−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.020.010.030.040.010.010.010.010.030.040.050.11−0.02−0.010.080.120.120.17−0.050.060.29LessMore

Hamilton Academical

0.020.010.010.030.010.010.040.020.010.020.010.050.020.050.030.12−0.010.050.07−0.01−0.04−0.22−0.010.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.14 → 1.19Hamilton Acad…0.95 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.93 → 1.00Hamilton Acad…1.95 → 2.02

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six97%98%+1
Hamilton Academical
Top six2%1%−1
11th22%21%−1
Bottom54%59%+5
St. Mirren
Top six6%6%0
11th26%27%+1
Bottom21%20%−1
Ross County
11th17%17%0
Bottom9%8%−1

From the forecast before the match (20 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHamilton Academical
Expected goals1.920.81
Win63%15%
Expected Points2.110.66
Clean sheet44%15%

Aberdeen 63%Draw 22%Hamilton Academical 15%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

Hamilton Academical goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%4%1%4%1%8%6%3%4%3%1%1%1%12%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHamilton Academical win
Aberdeen
Top six97%98%96%94%
Hamilton Academical
Top six2%1%2%4%
11th22%21%22%24%
Bottom54%59%51%40%
St. Mirren
Top six6%6%6%7%
11th26%27%24%22%
Bottom21%20%24%26%
Ross County
11th17%17%19%16%
Bottom9%8%10%13%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. D0–017 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.21–0.48
  2. W2–12 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.92–0.48
  3. W3–027 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.26–0.46
  4. L0–320 SepMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.75
  5. W1–012 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.76–0.49
  6. W1–030 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.73–0.46

Hamilton Academical

  1. L3–517 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.73–3.81
  2. L2–32 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.80–2.97
  3. D1–126 SepDundee United (H)xG 1.22–1.81
  4. L1–219 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.57–1.88
  5. W2–112 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.78–2.43
  6. L0–229 AugRangers (H)xG 0.17–4.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHamilton Academical
Position4th12th
Played910
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠1–⁠22–⁠1–⁠7
Points19 (2.11 per game)7 (0.70 per game)
Expected Points per game1.680.67
Goals10–⁠611–⁠21
xG per game1.35–⁠0.821.02–⁠2.57
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.14–⁠1.120.20, 0.68–⁠2.65
Away: points, xG per game2.50, 1.62–⁠0.461.20, 1.37–⁠2.50
ManagerDerek McInnes (9)Brian Rice (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackAberdeen1.14, 4thHamilton Acad…0.95, 9thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.93, 3rdHamilton Acad…1.95, 12th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctAberdeen attack: 1.14Hamilton Academical attack: 0.951.140.95Hamilton AcademicalAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctAberdeen defence: 0.93Hamilton Academical defence: 1.951.950.93

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHamilton Academical
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−5%−42%−61%+127%
Counter-attacks−78%+10%−100%+304%
Set pieces−36%−36%+54%+65%
Penalties+140%−40%+8%−100%
Headers−21%−39%+6%+58%
Left side−24%−46%−33%+134%
Centre−33%−26%−6%+130%
Right side+20%−55%−62%+67%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−24%+67%Centre−33%+130%Right side+20%+134%Open play−5%+127%Counter-attacks−78%+304%Set pieces−36%+65%Headers−21%+58%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdAberdeen concededLeft side−33%−55%Centre−6%−26%Right side−62%−46%Open play−61%−42%Counter-attacks−100%+10%Set pieces+54%−36%Headers+6%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHamilton Academical

1.35xG1.02
0.82xG against2.57
53%Possession42%
11.6Shots9.8
9.4Shots against18.3
4.3Shots on target3.1
1.8Big chances0.9
24.0Touches in the opposition box13.7
441Passes309
75%Pass accuracy62%
4.8Corners5.2
56%Field tilt37%
38.0Final-third entries31.3
9.7Box entries7.7
13.7Passes per defensive action13.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.480.68
Ahead251.801.00
Behind190.480.95

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level330.992.73
Ahead10.000.00
Behind561.062.52

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.170–2
16–300.120.121–2
31–450.220.092–0
46–600.250.103–1
61–750.210.171–1
76–900.270.173–0

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.470–6
16–300.160.521–4
31–450.090.313–3
46–600.180.381–3
61–750.270.502–2
76–900.260.404–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 9Hoban 6McCrorie 3Hayes 1Taylor 7McKenna 4Considine 6Hedges 2Kennedy 2Hernández 2Ferguson 7Wright 1Kennedy 1McCrorie 5Ojo 2Hedges 1Hayes 8Considine 1Wright 4Ferguson 2Watkins 1Watkins 6Hedges 3Anderson 1Wright 3McGinn 3Ojo 13-4-1-2 in 4 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 9Gourlay 1Hodson 5Odoffin 2Hamilton 2Odoffin 8Hamilton 1Fjørtoft 1Want 9McMann 1McMann 8Munro 2L. Smith 3Collar 2Martin 1Callachan 6Collar 1Trafford 1Martin 7Mimnaugh 4Templeton 1Templeton 4Moyo 1Callachan 1Moyo 6Templeton 2Callachan 1Ogboe 5Winter 54-4-2 in 7 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (7), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferguson9810500.410.05
Watkins7586210.380.06
Wright8572110.220.12
Hedges7622110.140.15

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Templeton7516120.150.23
Odoffin10880300.310.06
Callachan8730100.250.04
Ogboe5556100.220.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.