Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 0–3 Aberdeen

Sunday 27 September 2020, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 0–1

Ross County Vigurs sent off 60'

Aberdeen Watkins 42', Ferguson 60' (pen), 76' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyAberdeen
Goals03
xG0.463.26
Non-penalty xG0.461.68
Expected Points0.072.89

Ross County 1%Draw 4%Aberdeen 95%

Most likely score 0–3, 20%. Final score 0–3, 20%.

Aberdeen goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+4%13%7%2%2%6%10%8%3%1%1%2%2%20%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTVigurs (Ross County), red card 60'Charles-Cook on for Tillson, 46'Kelly on for Shaw, 61'McKay on for Gardyne, 84'McGeouch on for McGinn, 72'Hernández on for Hoban and McLennan on for Wright, 83'Edmondson on for Watkins, 84'Anderson on for Hedges, 90'Watkins 42'Ferguson 60' (pen)Ferguson 76' (pen)Aberdeen 3.26Ross County 0.46012340153045607590HTVigurs (Ross County), red card 60'Charles-Cook on for Tillson, 46'Kelly on for Shaw, 61'McKay on for Gardyne, 84'McGeouch on for McGinn, 72'Hernández on for Hoban and McLennan on for Wright, 83'Edmondson on for Watkins, 84'Anderson on for Hedges, 90'Watkins 42'Ferguson 60' (pen)Ferguson 76' (pen)3.260.46Ross CountyAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.46 −0.78xG3.26 +2.13
0.46Non-penalty xG1.68
0.00 −0.83xG on target3.77 +2.64
8 −2.1Shots18 +9.2
0 −3.2Shots on target8 +5.0
0 −1.6Big chances5 +3.3
11Touches in the opposition box26
46% −3Possession54% +4
419 +20Passes485 +64
78% +6Pass accuracy85% +12
31% −19Field tilt69% +20
45 +8Final-third entries45 +12
7 +0.2Box entries10 +1.0
16.2 +3Passes per defensive action12.8 −3
2 −1.8Corners6 +2.3
15 +3Tackles14 +2
13 +3.0Interceptions13 +4.5
16 −12Clearances13 −7
5 +2.2Saves0 −1.2
16 0Fouls14 0
2 +0.4Offsides3 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Shaw 55', 0.09 xGKelly 88', 0.09 xGPaton 40', 0.07 xGDonaldson 69', 0.06 xGPaton 15', 0.05 xGVigurs 49', 0.05 xGGardyne 13', 0.04 xGGardyne 19', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals55%0.26 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals30%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Watkins 6', 0.49 xGMcGinn 1', 0.36 xGWright 2', 0.10 xGHedges 6', 0.06 xGMcGinn 32', 0.06 xGHernández 90+2', 0.05 xGMcCrorie 10', 0.04 xGWatkins 82', 0.04 xGMcCrorie 7', 0.03 xGFerguson 33', 0.03 xGHedges 36', 0.03 xGHedges 56', 0.03 xGFerguson 79', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 80', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 90+2', 0.03 xGWatkins 42', 0.26 xG, goal29%0.49 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.49 xG, 0 goals50%0.84 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.84 xG, 1 goal5%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals14%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.32 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.64 15 shots, 1 goal
0.14 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties1.58 2 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
42 min (46%) · Ross County 0.18, Aberdeen 1.47 xG
Aberdeen ahead
50 min (54%) · Ross County 0.28, Aberdeen 1.79 xG

Line-ups

1152516431127222478LaidlawWatsonDonaldsonIacovittiReidVigursStewartTillsonPatonGardyneShawYellow cardSent off46'84'61'Ross County 4-1-4-1Stuart Kettlewell1314411194017255010LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHedgesFergusonMcCrorieHayesWrightWatkinsMcGinnGoalGoalGoal83'90'83'84'72'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Charles-Cook for Tillson
  • 61' Kelly for Shaw · yellow card 74'
  • 84' McKay for Gardyne

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 72' McGeouch for McGinn
  • 83' Hernández for Hoban
  • 83' McLennan for Wright
  • 84' Edmondson for Watkins
  • 90' Anderson for Hedges

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0232
WatsonRB900.000.010−0.0127
DonaldsonCB900.060.0100.111311
IacovittiCB900.000.0100.1076
ReidLB900.000.0410.1024
Vigurs DM600.050.0110.0122
StewartRM900.000.2110.1923
TillsonCM460.000.0000.0017
PatonCM900.120.0510.0444
GardyneLM840.070.0910.1441
ShawST610.090.010−0.0202
Charles-CookFW440.000.1210.1811
Kelly MF290.090.0000.0021
McKayFW60.000.0000.0100

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0120
HobanCB830.000.0100.0958
TaylorCB900.000.0000.0558
ConsidineCB900.000.0100.0955
HedgesRWB900.120.1340.1663
FergusonCM9021.630.050−0.0504
McCrorieCM900.140.0100.0633
HayesLWB9010.000.1310.27117
WrightAM830.100.1410.0952
WatkinsST8410.790.0810.1251
McGinnST720.420.1820.1242
McGeouchMF180.000.0120.0001
HernándezDF70.050.2000.0500
McLennanMF70.000.000−0.0100
EdmondsonFW60.000.0000.0000
AndersonFW00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Watson and Tillson: 4 passesDonaldson and Tillson: 4 passesIacovitti and Reid: 4 passesVigurs and Stewart: 4 passesVigurs and Paton: 4 passesStewart and Paton: 4 passesPaton and Shaw: 4 passesWatson and Donaldson: 5 passesWatson and Stewart: 5 passesPaton and Gardyne: 5 passesIacovitti and Vigurs: 6 passesStewart and Gardyne: 6 passesGardyne and Shaw: 6 passesReid and Stewart: 8 passesVigurs and Tillson: 8 passesReid and Gardyne: 9 passesReid and Vigurs: 11 passesVigurs and Gardyne: 12 passesReid and Paton: 13 passesLaidlaw: 4 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesDonaldson: 14 completed passesIacovitti: 18 completed passesReid: 26 completed passesVigurs: 29 completed passesStewart: 17 completed passesPaton: 18 completed passesTillson: 12 completed passesGardyne: 19 completed passesShaw: 12 completed passes1152516431127242278LaidlawWatsonDonaldsonIacovittiReidVigursStewartPatonTillsonGardyneShawStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Lewis and Hayes: 5 passesConsidine and McCrorie: 5 passesHedges and Watkins: 5 passesMcCrorie and McGinn: 5 passesWright and Watkins: 5 passesHoban and Wright: 6 passesHayes and Wright: 6 passesHayes and McGinn: 6 passesHoban and Hedges: 7 passesFerguson and Wright: 7 passesFerguson and McGinn: 7 passesHayes and Watkins: 7 passesTaylor and McCrorie: 8 passesFerguson and McCrorie: 8 passesWright and McGinn: 8 passesTaylor and Ferguson: 9 passesHedges and McCrorie: 9 passesHoban and Ferguson: 10 passesHoban and Taylor: 11 passesTaylor and Considine: 11 passesHedges and Wright: 11 passesLewis and Hoban: 13 passesHoban and McCrorie: 16 passesFerguson and Hayes: 16 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 19 passesConsidine and Hayes: 19 passesLewis: 17 completed passesHoban: 36 completed passesTaylor: 28 completed passesConsidine: 36 completed passesHedges: 21 completed passesFerguson: 43 completed passesMcCrorie: 30 completed passesHayes: 31 completed passesWright: 22 completed passesWatkins: 13 completed passesMcGinn: 25 completed passes1314411194017255010LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHedgesFergusonMcCrorieHayesWrightWatkinsMcGinnStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
ReidPaton12
WatsonDonaldson11
VigursGardyne10
PatonWatson9
VigursReid8

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ConsidineHayes19
FergusonConsidine13
FergusonHayes13
McCrorieHoban11
TaylorConsidine10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

3−3.07−0.116−0.56−0.480.09+3.08+1.96−3.27−1.85−0.94−0.92−2.65+1.010+3.83−2.62−1.01−1.94+0.45−0.12+0.110.02+1.22+0.50−2.01+0.20−0.40−0.40−0.51+0.15−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Aberdeen

40.06+0.88−4.23−2.28+0.34−1.75−1.74−1.710+2.26+1.27+3.02−1.05−0.210+3.04−0.54+1.320.02−2.54+0.220.03+1.72+1.03+1.73−0.80−0.31+0.81+0.71+0.51+0.51−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.050.030.010.020.03−0.010.020.030.060.02−0.02−0.040.120.070.200.17LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.020.010.010.020.050.040.020.020.070.020.060.04−0.010.070.040.020.030.12−0.050.050.080.28LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.08AttackRoss County0.91 → 0.91Aberdeen1.07 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.26 → 1.41Aberdeen0.91 → 0.91

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six34%25%−9
11th9%11%+2
Bottom6%8%+2
Aberdeen
Top six91%95%+4
11th<1%<1%0
Bottom<1%–0

From the forecast before the match (27 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyAberdeen
Expected goals0.831.24
Win24%45%
Expected Points1.031.66
Clean sheet29%43%

Ross County 24%Draw 31%Aberdeen 45%

Most likely score 0–1, 15%. Both sides score 41%.

Aberdeen goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+10%4%1%10%8%3%1%4%5%3%1%1%2%13%15%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawAberdeen win
Ross County
Top six34%47%36%25%
11th9%7%8%11%
Bottom6%2%6%8%
Aberdeen
Top six91%84%91%95%
11th<1%1%<1%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%–

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. W1–019 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.23–0.85
  2. L0–512 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.81–3.32
  3. L0–129 AugLivingston (A)xG 0.38–1.31
  4. D1–122 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.21–1.31
  5. L1–215 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.42–1.34
  6. D2–212 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.02–1.06

Aberdeen

  1. L0–320 SepMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.75
  2. W1–012 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.76–0.49
  3. W1–030 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.73–0.46
  4. W2–123 AugLivingston (H)xG 2.15–1.62
  5. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–0.42
  6. L0–11 AugRangers (H)xG 0.15–1.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyAberdeen
Position6th4th
Played86
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠34–⁠0–⁠2
Points11 (1.38 per game)12 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.251.43
Goals7–⁠115–⁠5
xG per game1.24–⁠1.451.13–⁠1.00
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.921.50, 1.19–⁠1.28
Away: points, xG per game1.75, 1.08–⁠0.983.00, 1.01–⁠0.44
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (8)Derek McInnes (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.08AttackRoss County0.91, 7thAberdeen1.07, 4thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.26, 10thAberdeen0.91, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepRoss County attack: 0.91Aberdeen attack: 1.071.070.91AberdeenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepRoss County defence: 1.26Aberdeen defence: 0.911.260.91

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+8%−21%−27%
Counter-attacks−100%−16%−100%−55%
Set piecesaverage+3%−31%−22%
Penalties+47%+47%+96%−2%
Headers+23%−9%−19%−25%
Left side−9%−1%−45%−41%
Centre−31%+19%−21%−11%
Right side+20%−9%−16%−40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdAberdeen concededLeft side−9%−40%Centre−31%−11%Right side+20%−41%Open play−14%−27%Counter-attacks−100%−55%Set piecesaverage−22%Headers+23%−25%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdRoss County concededLeft side−45%−9%Centre−21%+19%Right side−16%−1%Open play−21%+8%Counter-attacks−100%−16%Set pieces−31%+3%Headers−19%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyAberdeen

1.24xG1.13
1.45xG against1.00
49%Possession50%
10.1Shots8.8
12.4Shots against10.0
3.2Shots on target3.0
1.6Big chances1.7
399Passes421
72%Pass accuracy73%
3.8Corners3.7
50%Field tilt48%
36.5Final-third entries32.5
6.8Box entries9.0
13.3Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.401.10
Ahead230.371.67
Behind241.771.87

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.420.91
Ahead291.381.13
Behind260.480.96

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.271–2
16–300.200.112–1
31–450.170.231–1
46–600.180.200–2
61–750.200.431–4
76–900.270.222–1

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.230–2
16–300.140.171–2
31–450.250.091–0
46–600.220.112–0
61–750.280.210–1
76–900.130.191–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 8Randall 7Donaldson 1Donaldson 7Watson 1Iacovitti 8Reid 7Stewart 1Draper 3Paton 2Gardyne 2Vigurs 7Tillson 2Gardyne 3Erwin 2Randall 1Paton 3Tillson 2Vigurs 1Stewart 5Gardyne 1Paton 1McKay 6Stewart 1Shaw 14-2-3-1 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 6McCrorie 3Hoban 3Hayes 1Taylor 4McKenna 4Considine 3Kennedy 2Hernández 2McGinn 1Ferguson 4Wright 1Kennedy 1Ojo 2McCrorie 2Hedges 1Hayes 5Considine 1Ferguson 2Watkins 1Hedges 1Watkins 3Hedges 2McGinn 1Wright 3Ojo 1Kennedy 13-4-1-2 in 1 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart8716210.500.06
McKay6450100.390.15
Gardyne6523000.080.28
Vigurs8676100.020.08

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferguson6540200.310.04
Hayes6540000.030.10
Lewis6540000.000.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.