Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 2–2 Rangers

Sunday 20 September 2020, 12:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 8 · Half-time 1–1

Hibernian Wright 22', Doidge 71'

Rangers Morelos 45', Arfield 57'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianRangers
Goals22
xG0.603.01
Expected Points0.172.74

Hibernian 3%Draw 9%Rangers 88%

Most likely score 0–3, 14%. Final score 2–2, 2%.

Rangers goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+1%6%5%2%4%8%10%7%4%2%1%2%3%2%1%12%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTStevenson on for Doig, 63'Hallberg on for Wright, 90'Defoe on for Hagi, 75'Itten on for Kamara, 85'Wright 22'Doidge 71'Morelos 45'Arfield 57'Rangers 3.01Hibernian 0.60012340153045607590HTStevenson on for Doig, 63'Hallberg on for Wright, 90'Defoe on for Hagi, 75'Itten on for Kamara, 85'Wright 22'Doidge 71'Morelos 45'Arfield 57'3.010.60HibernianRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianRangers

0.60 −0.89xG3.01 +0.61
1.08 −0.40xG on target2.74 +0.74
7 −5Shots19 −3
5 +1.3Shots on target7 0.0
0 −1.7Big chances6 +3.0
31% −17Possession69% −1
264 −85Passes608 −61
67% +1Pass accuracy86% −1
16% −25Field tilt84% 0
28 −2Final-third entries62 −8
4 −6Box entries28 +8
20.6 +5.9Passes per defensive action7.0 −2.8
6 +1.0Corners5 −2.6
6 −9Tackles15 0
14 +5.0Interceptions9 +0.9
29 +4.1Clearances13 +4.7
5 +2.7Saves3 +1.9
17 +5Fouls14 +3
2 −0.1Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Porteous 66', 0.14 xGNisbet 18', 0.06 xGHanlon 47', 0.05 xGNisbet 8', 0.03 xGNisbet 74', 0.03 xGWright 22', 0.14 xG, goalDoidge 71', 0.14 xG, goal23%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 1 goal57%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 1 goal10%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals10%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Morelos 10', 0.53 xGArfield 80', 0.42 xGArfield 80', 0.26 xGKent 61', 0.22 xGMorelos 67', 0.09 xGArfield 13', 0.08 xGArfield 27', 0.07 xGArfield 45+1', 0.07 xGHelander 71', 0.07 xGKent 12', 0.06 xGHagi 70', 0.06 xGArfield 82', 0.06 xGBarisic 16', 0.05 xGGoldson 17', 0.05 xGKamara 3', 0.03 xGDavis 43', 0.03 xGHagi 69', 0.03 xGMorelos 45+1', 0.44 xG, goalArfield 57', 0.41 xG, goal32%0.97 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.97 xG, 1 goal59%1.79 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.79 xG, 1 goal4%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals2%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals2%0.07 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianRangers

0.54 6 shots, 2 goalsOpen play2.28 14 shots, 2 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.73 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
54 min (59%) · Hibernian 0.31, Rangers 1.95 xG
Hibernian ahead
23 min (25%) · Hibernian 0.00, Rangers 0.60 xG
Rangers ahead
14 min (15%) · Hibernian 0.29, Rangers 0.47 xG

Line-ups

1654108131125915MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonBoyleWrightGogicNewellDoigDoidgeNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal90'63'Hibernian 3-5-2Jack Ross332653110183714207McLaughlinTavernierGoldsonHelanderBarisicDavisKamaraArfieldKentMorelosHagiGoalGoalYellow card85'75'Rangers 4-3-3Steven Gerrard

Hibernian substitutes

  • 63' Stevenson for Doig
  • 90' Hallberg for Wright

Rangers substitutes

  • 75' Defoe for Hagi
  • 85' Itten for Kamara

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0110
P. McGinn CB900.000.0210.0656
Porteous CB900.140.0000.02211
Hanlon CB900.050.0100.03312
Boyle RWB9020.000.3820.1734
WrightCM9010.140.0210.0564
GogicCM900.000.0000.0117
NewellCM900.000.2920.1545
DoigLWB630.000.0000.0013
DoidgeST9010.140.0100.0012
NisbetST900.120.0100.0442
StevensonDF270.000.0100.0431
HallbergMF00.000.0000.0000

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McLaughlinGK900.000.0000.0200
TavernierRB900.000.2610.14114
GoldsonCB900.050.0400.21177
HelanderCB900.070.0100.0847
BarisicLB900.050.2320.2755
DavisCM900.030.3920.43169
KamaraCM850.030.2110.2892
ArfieldCM9011.370.1800.0442
KentRW9010.280.3450.3271
Morelos ST9011.050.040−0.0621
HagiLW7510.090.3950.3060
DefoeFW150.000.000−0.0700
IttenFW50.000.0000.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

P. McGinn and Boyle: 3 passesP. McGinn and Nisbet: 3 passesWright and Newell: 3 passesPorteous and Gogic: 4 passesHanlon and Gogic: 4 passesBoyle and Newell: 4 passesDoig and Newell: 4 passesWright and Nisbet: 4 passesP. McGinn and Gogic: 5 passesBoyle and Wright: 5 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 6 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 7 passesP. McGinn and Wright: 7 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 7 passesHanlon and Doig: 9 passesHanlon and Newell: 9 passesMarciano: 6 completed passesP. McGinn: 24 completed passesPorteous: 10 completed passesHanlon: 14 completed passesBoyle: 5 completed passesDoig: 11 completed passesGogic: 9 completed passesWright: 13 completed passesNewell: 17 completed passesDoidge: 3 completed passesNisbet: 4 completed passes1654102513811915MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonBoyleDoigGogicWrightNewellDoidgeNisbetStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

McLaughlin and Helander: 10 passesTavernier and Hagi: 10 passesHelander and Barisic: 10 passesBarisic and Kent: 10 passesArfield and Davis: 10 passesKamara and Morelos: 10 passesBarisic and Kamara: 11 passesDavis and Hagi: 11 passesMcLaughlin and Goldson: 12 passesHelander and Kent: 12 passesArfield and Kamara: 12 passesKamara and Davis: 13 passesKamara and Hagi: 13 passesTavernier and Arfield: 15 passesGoldson and Davis: 15 passesDavis and Kent: 15 passesHagi and Kent: 15 passesArfield and Hagi: 16 passesGoldson and Kamara: 18 passesKamara and Kent: 19 passesTavernier and Davis: 20 passesHelander and Davis: 20 passesHelander and Goldson: 24 passesHelander and Kamara: 28 passesMcLaughlin: 26 completed passesTavernier: 39 completed passesHelander: 58 completed passesGoldson: 49 completed passesBarisic: 30 completed passesArfield: 29 completed passesKamara: 72 completed passesDavis: 64 completed passesHagi: 32 completed passesMorelos: 18 completed passesKent: 42 completed passes332563137181072014McLaughlinTavernierHelanderGoldsonBarisicArfieldKamaraDavisHagiMorelosKentStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 8+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
NewellHanlon7
WrightP. McGinn6
PorteousHanlon6
HanlonDoig6
P. McGinnWright6

Rangers

FromToPasses
HelanderKamara16
HelanderGoldson15
KamaraHelander13
GoldsonDavis13
DavisHelander13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−4.05+0.322+4.69+2.65−3.13−3.06−2.36−2.314+8.76−1.97+2.07+2.75−0.34−3.07+2.65+1.43+1.01−0.44+0.71−2.30−0.72+1.11+0.40−1.11−0.10−1.10−0.62+0.90−0.70−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Rangers

3−1.61−2.49+4.75+0.74+0.76−1.710+4.46+3.75−1.65−2.09+2.04−1.44+1.32−2.46+0.33−2.93+0.36+2.77+1.45+2.04+1.41−0.31−1.12+0.33+1.71+0.61−0.11−0.11−0.40−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.060.020.010.010.040.040.01−0.010.010.050.010.05−0.030.010.030.07−0.050.070.16LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.010.020.040.040.030.020.040.070.030.070.030.080.200.040.030.030.050.160.180.090.200.09−0.05−0.030.200.29LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.06AttackHibernian1.06 → 1.13Rangers1.72 → 1.85Defence (lower is better)Hibernian0.98 → 1.06Rangers0.46 → 0.52

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six93%96%+3
Rangers
Title51%45%−6
Celtic
Title48%54%+6

From the forecast before the match (20 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianRangers
Expected goals0.511.59
Win11%63%
Expected Points0.592.16
Clean sheet20%60%

Hibernian 11%Draw 25%Rangers 63%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Both sides score 32%.

Rangers goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+13%8%3%1%6%10%8%4%2%2%3%2%1%19%15%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawRangers win
Hibernian
Top six93%97%96%92%
Rangers
Title51%38%45%56%
Celtic
Title48%60%54%43%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W3–012 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.09–1.24
  2. L0–130 AugAberdeen (H)xG 0.46–1.73
  3. W1–023 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.53–0.52
  4. D0–015 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.45–0.89
  5. W1–011 AugDundee United (A)xG 0.90–0.83
  6. W4–18 AugLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.42

Rangers

  1. W4–012 SepDundee United (H)xG 3.02–0.91
  2. W2–029 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 4.14–0.17
  3. W2–022 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.93–0.10
  4. D0–016 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.11–0.07
  5. W3–012 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.73–0.44
  6. W3–09 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.65–0.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianRangers
Position3rd2nd
Played77
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠16–⁠1–⁠0
Points16 (2.29 per game)19 (2.71 per game)
Expected Points per game1.652.61
Goals11–⁠315–⁠0
xG per game1.49–⁠1.052.40–⁠0.32
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.03–⁠1.113.00, 2.58–⁠0.47
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.84–⁠1.002.33, 2.17–⁠0.13
ManagerJack Ross (7)Steven Gerrard (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.06AttackHibernian1.06, 4thRangers1.72, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hibernian0.98, 4thRangers0.46, 1st

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepHibernian attack: 1.06Rangers attack: 1.721.721.06RangersHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepHibernian defence: 0.98Rangers defence: 0.460.980.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+4%−43%+143%−78%
Counter-attacks−35%−70%−26%−39%
Set pieces+14%+1%+14%−65%
Penalties+80%+80%−100%−100%
Headers+13%−15%+83%−45%
Left side−2%−10%+75%−71%
Centre+16%−53%+91%−70%
Right side−7%−14%+145%−78%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdRangers concededLeft side−2%−78%Centre+16%−70%Right side−7%−71%Open play+4%−78%Counter-attacks−35%−39%Set pieces+14%−65%Headers+13%−45%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHibernian concededLeft side+75%−14%Centre+91%−53%Right side+145%−10%Open play+143%−43%Counter-attacks−26%−70%Set pieces+14%+1%Headers+83%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianRangers

1.49xG2.40
1.05xG against0.32
48%Possession70%
11.7Shots22.3
12.9Shots against3.9
3.7Shots on target7.0
1.7Big chances3.0
349Passes669
67%Pass accuracy87%
5.0Corners7.6
41%Field tilt84%
30.4Final-third entries70.3
10.4Box entries20.1
14.7Passes per defensive action9.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.540.99
Ahead361.621.26
Behind70.510.44

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.980.12
Ahead572.650.44
Behind0––

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.102–0
16–300.210.132–0
31–450.350.313–2
46–600.090.221–1
61–750.260.051–0
76–900.340.242–0

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.022–0
16–300.350.014–0
31–450.280.082–0
46–600.590.062–0
61–750.440.033–0
76–900.410.132–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 7McGinn 6Boyle 1Porteous 7Hanlon 7Doig 6Allan 1Boyle 5McGinn 1Wright 1Gogic 6Hallberg 1Newell 7Horgan 4Doig 1Murphy 1Doidge 6Boyle 1Allan 1Nisbet 54-4-2 in 5 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcLaughlin 6McGregor 1Tavernier 7Goldson 7Helander 4Balogun 3Barisic 7Jack 4Aribo 2Kamara 4Davis 3Arfield 1Hagi 4Kent 2Barker 1Jack 3Barker 2Hagi 1Kent 5Hagi 1Itten 1Morelos 4Roofe 34-2-3-1 in 4 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-3-3 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyle7627310.280.12
Doidge6560200.330.05
Newell7565110.030.19
Gogic6540000.040.01

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kent7586400.440.25
Hagi6492120.420.14
Tavernier7626230.260.25
Barisic7588120.050.29

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.