Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Celtic 0–2 Rangers

Saturday 17 October 2020, 12:30 · Celtic Park · Round 11 · Half-time 0–1

Rangers Goldson 9', 54'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticRangers
Goals02
xG0.551.50
Expected Points0.582.16

Celtic 10%Draw 27%Rangers 63%

Most likely score 0–1, 20%. Final score 0–2, 17%.

Rangers goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+9%7%1%6%11%5%1%3%3%1%20%17%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAjeti on for Elyounoussi, 56'Rogic on for Ntcham and Griffiths on for Klimala, 67'Taylor on for Laxalt and Turnbull on for Welsh, 84'Jack on for Barker, 62'Itten on for Morelos, 86'Aribo on for Arfield, 90'Goldson 9'Goldson 54'Rangers 1.50Celtic 0.5500.511.520153045607590HTAjeti on for Elyounoussi, 56'Rogic on for Ntcham and Griffiths on for Klimala, 67'Taylor on for Laxalt and Turnbull on for Welsh, 84'Jack on for Barker, 62'Itten on for Morelos, 86'Aribo on for Arfield, 90'Goldson 9'Goldson 54'1.500.55CelticRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticRangers

0.55 −1.79xG1.50 −0.94
0.00 −2.79xG on target2.01 −0.21
5 −14Shots9 −12
0 −7.7Shots on target5 −1.9
1 −2.4Big chances3 −0.2
11 −14Touches in the opposition box19 −7
56% −13Possession44% −25
482 −143Passes368 −273
78% −10Pass accuracy75% −11
36% −42Field tilt64% −19
45 −29Final-third entries29 −35
7 −11Box entries12 −8
12.4 +2.3Passes per defensive action11.2 +1.3
1 −5.7Corners5 −2.6
18 +6Tackles18 +3
14 +6.0Interceptions13 +4.8
19 +4.9Clearances17 +7.2
3 +1.9Saves0 −1.2
13 +2Fouls18 +8
3 +2.1Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Elyounoussi 15', 0.24 xGElyounoussi 6', 0.17 xGNtcham 16', 0.05 xGMcGregor 20', 0.05 xGAjeti 85', 0.04 xG31%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals53%0.29 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals16%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Kent 66', 0.40 xGGoldson 54', 0.09 xGTavernier 87', 0.06 xGBarisic 7', 0.05 xGKent 13', 0.05 xGTavernier 11', 0.04 xGArfield 69', 0.03 xGGoldson 54', 0.46 xG, goalGoldson 9', 0.32 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals88%1.32 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.32 xG, 2 goals6%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticRangers

0.55 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.18 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.40 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.93 4 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Celtic 0.17, Rangers 0.37 xG
Rangers ahead
81 min (90%) · Celtic 0.38, Rangers 1.13 xG

Line-ups

1354573082142931127BarkasAjerDuffyWelshFrimpongBrownNtchamMcGregorLaxaltKlimalaElyounoussiYellow cardYellow card84'67'84'67'56'Celtic 3-5-2Neil Lennon126531371018212014McGregorTavernierGoldsonHelanderBarisicArfieldDavisKamaraBarkerMorelosKentGoalGoalYellow cardYellow card90'62'86'Rangers 4-3-3Steven Gerrard

Celtic substitutes

  • 56' Ajeti for Elyounoussi
  • 67' Griffiths for Klimala
  • 67' Rogic for Ntcham
  • 84' Taylor for Laxalt
  • 84' Turnbull for Welsh

Rangers substitutes

  • 62' Jack for Barker
  • 86' Itten for Morelos
  • 90' Aribo for Arfield

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BarkasGK900.000.0000.0211
AjerCB900.000.0800.2098
Duffy CB900.000.0100.0948
WelshCB840.000.0000.04310
FrimpongRWB900.000.0300.0884
Brown CM900.000.0100.0108
NtchamCM670.050.0800.0833
McGregorCM900.050.3410.1855
LaxaltLWB840.000.0400.1363
KlimalaST670.000.000−0.0200
ElyounoussiST560.410.0100.0111
AjetiFW340.040.0000.0110
GriffithsFW230.000.011−0.0501
RogicFW230.000.0000.0000
TaylorDF60.000.0100.0421
TurnbullMF60.000.0000.0000

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0120
TavernierRB9010.100.1810.0765
GoldsonCB9020.870.0010.02312
HelanderCB900.000.0000.0117
BarisicLB900.050.3310.1253
Arfield CM900.030.0200.0428
DavisCM900.000.0100.0102
KamaraCM900.000.0100.0445
BarkerRW620.000.010−0.0122
Morelos ST860.000.0720.0732
KentLW900.450.0800.1563
JackMF280.000.0100.0102
IttenFW40.000.0000.0001
AriboMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Duffy and Frimpong: 3 passesDuffy and Ntcham: 3 passesFrimpong and Elyounoussi: 3 passesNtcham and Brown: 3 passesNtcham and McGregor: 3 passesWelsh and Brown: 4 passesBrown and Elyounoussi: 4 passesDuffy and McGregor: 5 passesAjer and Welsh: 5 passesFrimpong and Brown: 5 passesMcGregor and Elyounoussi: 5 passesBarkas and Ajer: 6 passesAjer and Brown: 6 passesAjer and Elyounoussi: 6 passesLaxalt and Brown: 6 passesLaxalt and Elyounoussi: 6 passesWelsh and McGregor: 7 passesDuffy and Brown: 9 passesAjer and McGregor: 9 passesLaxalt and McGregor: 9 passesBrown and McGregor: 12 passesWelsh and Frimpong: 13 passesFrimpong and Ntcham: 14 passesAjer and Laxalt: 16 passesDuffy and Ajer: 30 passesDuffy and Welsh: 31 passesBarkas: 7 completed passesDuffy: 44 completed passesAjer: 42 completed passesWelsh: 34 completed passesFrimpong: 21 completed passesLaxalt: 19 completed passesNtcham: 11 completed passesBrown: 28 completed passesMcGregor: 27 completed passesElyounoussi: 10 completed passesKlimala: 2 completed passes1435573093218422711BarkasDuffyAjerWelshFrimpongLaxaltNtchamBrownMcGregorElyounoussiKlimalaStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

Tavernier and Barker: 5 passesHelander and Barisic: 5 passesHelander and Kamara: 5 passesHelander and Davis: 5 passesKamara and Morelos: 5 passesKamara and Kent: 5 passesTavernier and Davis: 6 passesTavernier and Kent: 6 passesBarisic and Morelos: 6 passesGoldson and Davis: 7 passesMcGregor and Goldson: 8 passesHelander and Goldson: 8 passesTavernier and Arfield: 9 passesBarisic and Davis: 9 passesArfield and Morelos: 9 passesMorelos and Kent: 9 passesTavernier and Goldson: 10 passesBarisic and Kent: 11 passesKamara and Davis: 11 passesTavernier and Morelos: 13 passesMcGregor: 18 completed passesTavernier: 31 completed passesHelander: 14 completed passesGoldson: 20 completed passesBarisic: 24 completed passesArfield: 19 completed passesKamara: 21 completed passesDavis: 25 completed passesBarker: 11 completed passesMorelos: 20 completed passesKent: 19 completed passes125631371810212014McGregorTavernierHelanderGoldsonBarisicArfieldKamaraDavisBarkerMorelosKentStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
DuffyAjer33
WelshDuffy28
AjerDuffy18
AjerLaxalt17
DuffyWelsh16

Rangers

FromToPasses
BarisicKent10
TavernierMorelos9
MorelosKent8
DavisBarisic7
KentBarisic7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

14+11.17+2.67−2.05+0.910+5.78+1.33−1.86+2.25−1.113+5.25+0.94−2.43+1.01−4.67+1.24+0.44+0.82−0.43−1.74−0.11−1.12−0.61−0.72−0.83+0.60−0.20−0.41+0.31+0.10−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Rangers

3−1.16+3.110+4.73−2.75+1.212+4.38+2.24+1.18+1.97+0.39+2.65−0.24+0.17+2.66+0.62−3.13−1.83+0.36+2.63−0.61−1.73+2.01−0.66+3.92+0.60−0.410.01+0.12+0.91−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.050.010.030.020.060.050.050.050.010.050.010.07−0.020.11−0.050.120.15LessMore

Rangers

0.010.030.010.010.020.030.020.010.020.03−0.010.030.020.040.030.030.030.060.070.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackCeltic1.99 → 1.92Rangers1.94 → 1.94Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.57 → 0.57Rangers0.53 → 0.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title54%38%−16
Rangers
Title46%62%+16

From the forecast before the match (17 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticRangers
Expected goals0.971.00
Win33%35%
Expected Points1.311.36
Clean sheet37%38%

Celtic 33%Draw 33%Rangers 35%

Most likely score 0–0, 15%. Both sides score 40%.

Rangers goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+7%2%7%2%7%7%3%1%2%2%1%15%13%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawRangers win
Celtic
Title54%70%55%38%
Rangers
Title46%29%45%62%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–04 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.71–0.63
  2. W3–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.94–0.60
  3. W3–219 SepLivingston (H)xG 1.58–1.35
  4. W2–116 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.18–1.12
  5. W5–012 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.32–0.81
  6. W3–030 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.06–0.22

Rangers

  1. W2–04 OctRoss County (H)xG 2.00–0.46
  2. W5–127 SepMotherwell (A)xG 2.59–0.38
  3. D2–220 SepHibernian (A)xG 3.01–0.60
  4. W4–012 SepDundee United (H)xG 3.02–0.91
  5. W2–029 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 4.14–0.17
  6. W2–022 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.93–0.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticRangers
Position2nd1st
Played910
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠1–⁠08–⁠2–⁠0
Points25 (2.78 per game)26 (2.60 per game)
Expected Points per game2.272.64
Goals25–⁠524–⁠3
xG per game2.34–⁠0.732.44–⁠0.37
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.52–⁠0.663.00, 2.47–⁠0.47
Away: points, xG per game2.60, 2.19–⁠0.782.20, 2.42–⁠0.27
ManagerNeil Lennon (9)Steven Gerrard (10)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackCeltic1.99, 1stRangers1.94, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.57, 2ndRangers0.53, 1st

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctCeltic attack: 1.99Rangers attack: 1.941.991.94RangersCelticDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctCeltic defence: 0.57Rangers defence: 0.530.570.53

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+90%−55%+120%−72%
Counter-attacks+615%−100%−35%−46%
Set pieces+30%−46%+24%−62%
Penalties+15%+15%+55%−100%
Headers+7%−54%+62%−39%
Left side+68%−48%+86%−68%
Centre+97%−55%+73%−63%
Right side+74%−54%+113%−78%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRangers concededLeft side+68%−78%Centre+97%−63%Right side+74%−68%Open play+90%−72%Counter-attacks+615%−46%Set pieces+30%−62%Headers+7%−39%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdCeltic concededLeft side+86%−54%Centre+73%−55%Right side+113%−48%Open play+120%−55%Counter-attacks−35%−100%Set pieces+24%−46%Headers+62%−54%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticRangers

2.34xG2.44
0.73xG against0.37
69%Possession69%
19.2Shots20.5
7.2Shots against4.6
7.7Shots on target6.9
3.4Big chances3.2
25.5Touches in the opposition box26.0
625Passes641
87%Pass accuracy86%
6.7Corners7.6
77%Field tilt83%
74.1Final-third entries63.9
18.1Box entries19.7
10.1Passes per defensive action9.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.040.78
Ahead482.580.72
Behind22.570.00

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level322.510.18
Ahead562.410.49
Behind22.350.00

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.163–1
16–300.290.285–2
31–450.480.054–1
46–600.400.104–0
61–750.540.083–0
76–900.420.076–1

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.390.023–0
16–300.400.046–1
31–450.350.074–0
46–600.500.043–0
61–750.380.064–1
76–900.440.134–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 8Bain 1Frimpong 4Elhamed 3Duffy 1Jullien 5Duffy 4Ajer 8Bitton 1Taylor 5Edouard 2Christie 1Brown 4Christie 2Frimpong 1McGregor 9Forrest 1Forrest 3Frimpong 2Christie 2Ntcham 3Brown 3Elyounoussi 1Elyounoussi 3Taylor 3Edouard 2Edouard 2Elyounoussi 2Ajeti 24-2-3-1 in 4 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcLaughlin 8McGregor 2Tavernier 10Goldson 10Helander 6Balogun 4Barisic 9Bassey 1Kamara 5Davis 5Aribo 2Jack 5Arfield 3Hagi 4Kent 3Jones 2Jack 3Kamara 2Barker 2Kent 7Hagi 2Itten 1Morelos 7Roofe 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-3-3 (5)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard6525400.840.14
Christie7626240.320.36
Forrest5484210.280.23
Frimpong7624110.240.18

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morelos7588310.600.20
Tavernier10896530.440.26
Kent10827410.350.24
Hagi7607150.350.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.