Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Motherwell 0–1 Hamilton Academical

Saturday 22 August 2020, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 5 · Half-time 0–0

Hamilton Academical Odoffin 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHamilton Academical
Goals01
xG0.732.22
Expected Points0.332.52

Motherwell 6%Draw 15%Hamilton Academical 79%

Most likely score 0–2, 19%. Final score 0–1, 9%.

Hamilton Academical goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+1%9%3%7%11%2%2%6%4%1%19%14%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHylton on for Lang, 54'Long on for White, 60'Watt on for Campbell and Hastie on for Seedorf, 81'L. Smith on for Johnson, 35'Trafford on for Templeton, 54'Winter on for Ogboe, C. Smith on for Moyo, and Mimnaugh on for Martin, 67'Odoffin 86'Hamilton Academical 2.22Motherwell 0.7301230153045607590HTHylton on for Lang, 54'Long on for White, 60'Watt on for Campbell and Hastie on for Seedorf, 81'L. Smith on for Johnson, 35'Trafford on for Templeton, 54'Winter on for Ogboe, C. Smith on for Moyo, and Mimnaugh on for Martin, 67'Odoffin 86'2.220.73MotherwellHamilton Academical

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHamilton Academical

0.73 −0.39xG2.22 +1.64
0.92 +0.22xG on target1.70 +1.11
17 +2.2Shots8 −1.3
4 +1.5Shots on target2 −1.3
0 −1.0Big chances3 +3.0
68% +12Possession32% −6
489 +94Passes235 −19
81% +8Pass accuracy57% +1
73% +23Field tilt27% −4
48 +8Final-third entries17 −10
17 +6.0Box entries5 −3.7
8.3 −4Passes per defensive action17.9 +3
13 +5.8Corners5 −1.3
15 +2Tackles22 0
7 −2.0Interceptions12 +3.7
19 −3Clearances36 +17
1 −1.5Saves4 −2.7
17 +3.8Fouls12 +2.7
1 −1.5Offsides0 −2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Hylton 65', 0.11 xGWhite 54', 0.08 xGTurnbull 17', 0.05 xGLang 3', 0.04 xGTurnbull 14', 0.04 xGSeedorf 19', 0.04 xGTurnbull 43', 0.04 xGWhite 50', 0.04 xGO'Hara 72', 0.04 xGTurnbull 76', 0.04 xGTurnbull 18', 0.03 xGO'Hara 26', 0.03 xGTurnbull 29', 0.03 xGLang 34', 0.03 xGCampbell 34', 0.03 xGTurnbull 42', 0.03 xGTurnbull 51', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals38%0.28 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals22%0.16 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals32%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Hamilton Academical

Odoffin 83', 0.86 xGCallachan 73', 0.60 xGC. Smith 84', 0.08 xGWant 79', 0.07 xGL. Smith 45', 0.05 xGCallachan 85', 0.04 xGTempleton 9', 0.03 xGOdoffin 86', 0.50 xG, goal88%1.96 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.96 xG, 1 goal7%0.15 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals4%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHamilton Academical

0.50 14 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.19 4 shots, 0 goals
0.23 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces2.03 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
86 min (96%) · Motherwell 0.73, Hamilton Academical 2.22 xG
Hamilton Academical ahead
4 min (4%) · Motherwell 0.00, Hamilton Academical 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1333116467817929CarsonO'DonnellGallagherMugabiLamieCampbellO'HaraTurnbullSeedorfWhiteLangYellow cardYellow card81'81'60'54'Motherwell 4-3-3Steve Robinson232721233734820910FultonHodsonOdoffinWantMcMannJohnsonCallachanMartinMoyoOgboeTempletonGoalYellow card35'67'67'67'54'Hamilton Academical 4-4-2Brian Rice

Motherwell substitutes

  • 54' Hylton for Lang
  • 60' Long for White
  • 81' Hastie for Seedorf
  • 81' Watt for Campbell

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 35' L. Smith for Johnson
  • 54' Trafford for Templeton
  • 67' Winter for Ogboe
  • 67' C. Smith for Moyo
  • 67' Mimnaugh for Martin · 1 assist

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0010.0741
O'Donnell RB900.000.0500.1384
Gallagher CB900.000.1420.3289
MugabiCB900.000.0110.0706
LamieLB900.000.0930.17119
CampbellCM810.030.0530.0421
O'HaraCM900.080.0210.0644
TurnbullCM900.290.7730.27102
SeedorfRW810.040.0200.0742
WhiteST600.120.000−0.0101
LangLW540.070.0420.0442
HyltonFW360.110.060−0.2441
LongFW300.000.0000.0001
HastieFW90.000.0000.0000
WattFW90.000.0000.0002

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK900.000.0400.1463
HodsonRB900.000.0000.0008
OdoffinCB9011.360.0000.0239
WantCB900.070.0000.01115
McMannLB900.000.0110.05711
JohnsonRM350.000.0000.0222
CallachanCM900.640.0100.02310
MartinCM670.000.0100.0453
MoyoLM670.000.0110.0005
OgboeST670.000.0000.0001
Templeton ST540.030.0100.0310
L. SmithFW550.050.0820.0633
TraffordMF360.000.0100.0332
WinterFW230.000.0100.0100
C. SmithFW230.080.0000.0403
MimnaughMF2310.000.3730.0003

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Carson and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Donnell and Turnbull: 4 passesO'Hara and Lang: 4 passesCarson and O'Donnell: 5 passesO'Donnell and O'Hara: 5 passesGallagher and Campbell: 5 passesLamie and O'Hara: 5 passesCampbell and Lang: 5 passesMugabi and Turnbull: 6 passesMugabi and Campbell: 6 passesGallagher and Turnbull: 6 passesO'Donnell and Gallagher: 7 passesTurnbull and O'Hara: 7 passesCampbell and O'Hara: 7 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 8 passesMugabi and O'Hara: 9 passesLamie and Lang: 9 passesGallagher and O'Hara: 10 passesCarson and Mugabi: 12 passesTurnbull and Lang: 12 passesCarson and Gallagher: 13 passesLamie and Campbell: 13 passesTurnbull and Campbell: 13 passesLamie and Turnbull: 16 passesMugabi and Lamie: 21 passesMugabi and Gallagher: 26 passesCarson: 28 completed passesO'Donnell: 22 completed passesMugabi: 42 completed passesGallagher: 38 completed passesLamie: 38 completed passesTurnbull: 31 completed passesCampbell: 32 completed passesO'Hara: 27 completed passesSeedorf: 2 completed passesWhite: 3 completed passesLang: 14 completed passes1331631486717929CarsonO'DonnellMugabiGallagherLamieTurnbullCampbellO'HaraSeedorfWhiteLangStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hamilton Academical

Fulton and Odoffin: 3 passesWant and McMann: 3 passesMcMann and Templeton: 3 passesCallachan and Ogboe: 3 passesCallachan and Templeton: 4 passesFulton and Want: 5 passesFulton: 10 completed passesHodson: 2 completed passesOdoffin: 3 completed passesWant: 6 completed passesMcMann: 5 completed passesJohnson: 1 completed passesMartin: 5 completed passesCallachan: 6 completed passesMoyo: 4 completed passesTempleton: 4 completed passesOgboe: 4 completed passes232721233783420109FultonHodsonOdoffinWantMcMannJohnsonMartinCallachanMoyoTempletonOgboeStarters until 35' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
GallagherMugabi21
MugabiGallagher20
CarsonGallagher16
MugabiLamie16
LamieTurnbull16

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
FultonWant8
WantMcMann6
McMannFulton4
FultonOdoffin4
FultonMoyo4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4+0.24−1.011−1.010+2.08+1.09+2.06+0.27+0.57−0.210+5.25−1.25+2.87+0.88+3.82−2.51−2.22−0.22−0.52−2.81−1.01−0.20−0.83+1.82+1.20−1.50−0.51−0.80−1.02+1.82−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Hamilton Academical

10+5.08+6.022+10.710+4.08+3.78+0.73−5.08−3.78−2.011+4.05−1.05+0.33−1.03−0.77−1.73−3.04+0.32−1.05+1.78+4.73+1.01−1.31−0.30−1.02−1.00−0.30−0.30−0.30−0.71−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.030.010.040.020.010.030.040.080.020.030.060.080.010.090.040.05−0.01−0.05−0.170.080.120.140.110.11LessMore

Hamilton Academical

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.010.030.010.020.020.010.010.03−0.010.010.02−0.010.050.010.12LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 1.01AttackMotherwell0.89 → 0.77Hamilton Acad…0.73 → 0.72Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.04 → 1.03Hamilton Acad…1.63 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six34%20%−14
11th9%13%+4
Bottom5%10%+5
Hamilton Academical
Top six3%7%+4
11th19%19%0
Bottom56%42%−14
Ross County
Top six42%43%+1
Bottom3%4%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six24%25%+1
11th15%13%−2
Bottom9%12%+3

From the forecast before the match (22 August 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHamilton Academical
Expected goals1.570.76
Win56%17%
Expected Points1.950.79
Clean sheet47%21%

Motherwell 56%Draw 26%Hamilton Academical 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Both sides score 43%.

Hamilton Academical goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+10%7%3%4%1%9%3%6%5%2%2%2%15%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 August 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHamilton Academical win
Motherwell
Top six34%40%28%20%
11th9%7%11%13%
Bottom5%3%6%10%
Hamilton Academical
Top six3%2%3%7%
11th19%19%19%19%
Bottom56%62%52%42%
Ross County
Top six42%41%45%43%
Bottom3%3%3%4%
Kilmarnock
Top six24%23%25%25%
11th15%16%15%13%
Bottom9%8%10%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D0–015 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.89–1.45
  2. D2–212 AugLivingston (H)xG 0.50–2.03
  3. L0–18 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–0.89
  4. L0–13 AugRoss County (A)xG 1.96–1.33

Hamilton Academical

  1. L0–115 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.83–1.97
  2. L0–18 AugRoss County (H)xG 0.45–1.50
  3. L1–52 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.47–4.51

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHamilton Academical
Position10th12th
Played43
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠2–⁠20–⁠0–⁠3
Points2 (0.50 per game)0 (0.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.140.35
Goals2–⁠41–⁠7
xG per game1.12–⁠1.430.58–⁠2.66
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 0.81–⁠1.460.00, 0.64–⁠1.73
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.43–⁠1.390.00, 0.47–⁠4.51
ManagerSteve Robinson (4)Brian Rice (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.01AttackMotherwell0.89, 7thHamilton Acad…0.73, 12thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.04, 6thHamilton Acad…1.63, 12th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.01 Aug20 AugMotherwell attack: 0.89Hamilton Academical attack: 0.730.890.73Hamilton AcademicalMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.01 Aug20 AugMotherwell defence: 1.04Hamilton Academical defence: 1.631.631.04

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHamilton Academical
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%−7%−27%+89%
Counter-attacks−67%+27%−50%+160%
Set pieces−3%+6%−11%+33%
Penalties+21%+108%−50%−50%
Headers+52%+25%−4%−27%
Left side+29%−6%+10%+113%
Centre−35%−10%−28%+83%
Right side+2%+18%−40%+6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side+29%+6%Centre−35%+83%Right side+2%+113%Open play−10%+89%Counter-attacks−67%+160%Set pieces−3%+33%Headers+52%−27%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdMotherwell concededLeft side+10%+18%Centre−28%−10%Right side−40%−6%Open play−27%−7%Counter-attacks−50%+27%Set pieces−11%+6%Headers−4%+25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHamilton Academical

1.12xG0.58
1.43xG against2.66
56%Possession38%
14.8Shots9.3
11.8Shots against18.0
2.5Shots on target3.3
1.0Big chances0.0
395Passes254
73%Pass accuracy56%
7.2Corners6.3
50%Field tilt31%
40.3Final-third entries26.7
11.0Box entries8.7
12.3Passes per defensive action15.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level550.761.54
Ahead90.803.87
Behind261.990.33

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.632.83
Ahead0––
Behind520.552.53

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.491–1
16–300.170.250–1
31–450.100.181–0
46–600.210.140–1
61–750.420.240–1
76–900.110.140–0

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.310–0
16–300.070.700–2
31–450.050.371–1
46–600.150.480–2
61–750.110.450–0
76–900.050.350–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTCarson 4Grimshaw 2Gallagher 1O'Donnell 1Gallagher 3Mugabi 3Lamie 2Lamie 2Grimshaw 1McGinley 1Seedorf 2Turnbull 1Hastie 1O'Hara 4Campbell 2Turnbull 1Donnelly 1Turnbull 2Lang 1Hastie 1Long 3White 2Seedorf 1Campbell 14-4-2 in 2 of 4 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 3Odoffin 2Hodson 1Odoffin 1Fjørtoft 1Hamilton 1Want 3McMann 3L. Smith 3Callachan 3Martin 3Templeton 1C. Smith 1Hughes 1Moyo 3Winter 34-4-2 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.