Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Celtic 3–2 Livingston

Saturday 19 September 2020, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 8 · Half-time 2–1

Celtic McGregor 20', Christie 23', Ajeti 52'

Livingston Holt 16' (pen), Serrano 78'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticLivingston
Goals32
xG1.581.35
Non-penalty xG1.580.56
Expected Points1.491.18

Celtic 39%Draw 33%Livingston 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 3–2, 4%.

Livingston goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%7%5%4%11%2%3%11%2%1%7%4%2%1%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Frimpong and Bitton on for Elhamed, 74'Klimala on for Ajeti, 79'Elyounoussi on for Christie, 84'Turnbull on for Ntcham, 85'Lokotsch on for Tiffoney and Robinson on for Sibbald, 69'Forrest on for Brown, 74'Pignatiello on for Bartley, 88'McGregor 20'Christie 23'Ajeti 52'Holt 16' (pen)Serrano 78'Celtic 1.58Livingston 1.3500.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Frimpong and Bitton on for Elhamed, 74'Klimala on for Ajeti, 79'Elyounoussi on for Christie, 84'Turnbull on for Ntcham, 85'Lokotsch on for Tiffoney and Robinson on for Sibbald, 69'Forrest on for Brown, 74'Pignatiello on for Bartley, 88'McGregor 20'Christie 23'Ajeti 52'Holt 16' (pen)Serrano 78'1.581.35CelticLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticLivingston

1.58 −1.06xG1.35 0.00
1.58Non-penalty xG0.56
2.27 −0.76xG on target1.32 +0.40
17 −2Shots7 −4
6 −2.5Shots on target3 +0.3
2 −1.8Big chances2 +0.7
72% +2Possession28% −23
679 +66Passes266 −83
86% −1Pass accuracy57% −5
89% +9Field tilt11% −44
73 −2Final-third entries14 −24
13 −8Box entries7 −4
11.9 +2.3Passes per defensive action26.5 +15.5
3 −3.7Corners1 −4.7
7 −6Tackles24 +8
7 −0.8Interceptions8 −1.6
7 −8Clearances16 −3
1 −0.5Saves3 +1.0
8 −3Fouls11 −5
2 +1.2Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Christie 15', 0.14 xGChristie 13', 0.06 xGChristie 36', 0.06 xGTaylor 15', 0.05 xGAjeti 18', 0.05 xGAjeti 56', 0.05 xGFrimpong 68', 0.05 xGNtcham 5', 0.04 xGFrimpong 71', 0.04 xGForrest 75', 0.04 xGDuffy 86', 0.04 xGNtcham 36', 0.03 xGDuffy 60', 0.03 xGBrown 73', 0.03 xGChristie 23', 0.53 xG, goalAjeti 52', 0.30 xG, goalMcGregor 20', 0.04 xG, goal9%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals40%0.63 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.63 xG, 1 goal14%0.22 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal31%0.49 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.49 xG, 1 goal7%0.11 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Tiffoney 24', 0.32 xGHolt 7', 0.08 xGPignatiello 90+4', 0.07 xGAmbrose 90', 0.03 xGHolt 90', 0.03 xGSerrano 78', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%0.47 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals16%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticLivingston

1.45 14 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.50 4 shots, 1 goal
0.13 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.06 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (20%) · Celtic 0.82, Livingston 0.87 xG
Celtic ahead
71 min (76%) · Celtic 0.67, Livingston 0.48 xG
Livingston ahead
4 min (4%) · Celtic 0.09, Livingston 0.00 xG

Line-ups

144435308214231017BarkasElhamedDuffyAjerFrimpongBrownNtchamMcGregorTaylorAjetiChristieGoalGoalGoal74'74'85'79'84'Celtic 3-5-2Neil Lennon12252731218610822McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieBrownSerranoHoltBartleySibbaldPittmanTiffoneyGoalGoalYellow card74'88'69'69'Livingston 5-3-2Gary Holt

Celtic substitutes

  • 74' Forrest for Frimpong
  • 74' Bitton for Elhamed
  • 79' Klimala for Ajeti · yellow card 90'
  • 84' Elyounoussi for Christie
  • 85' Turnbull for Ntcham

Livingston substitutes

  • 69' Lokotsch for Tiffoney
  • 69' Robinson for Sibbald
  • 74' Forrest for Brown
  • 88' Pignatiello for Bartley

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BarkasGK900.000.0000.0100
ElhamedCB740.000.0600.13105
DuffyCB900.080.0200.1025
AjerCB900.000.0200.1486
FrimpongRWB740.090.0310.1592
BrownCM900.030.020−0.0111
NtchamCM850.070.0620.1170
McGregorCM9010.040.1530.0761
TaylorLWB9010.050.6820.34221
AjetiST79110.400.061−0.0600
ChristieST84110.790.3130.0031
ForrestFW160.040.0100.0520
BittonDF160.000.0000.0330
Klimala FW110.000.0000.0000
ElyounoussiMF60.000.010−0.0100
TurnbullMF50.000.0410.0020

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0461
DevlinRWB900.000.0100.0685
AmbroseCB900.030.0000.0428
GuthrieCB900.000.0000.0118
BrownCB740.000.0210.0314
SerranoLWB9010.030.0000.0115
HoltCM90110.900.0110.0237
BartleyCM880.000.0100.0224
Sibbald CM690.000.0100.0115
PittmanST900.000.011−0.0114
TiffoneyST690.320.0510.1401
LokotschFW210.000.0100.0000
RobinsonFW210.000.011−0.0500
ForrestFW160.000.1310.0711
PignatielloDF20.070.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Duffy and Ntcham: 7 passesElhamed and Ajer: 7 passesNtcham and McGregor: 7 passesAjeti and Christie: 7 passesNtcham and Christie: 8 passesElhamed and Brown: 9 passesAjer and Christie: 9 passesNtcham and Brown: 9 passesMcGregor and Ajeti: 9 passesBarkas and Duffy: 10 passesAjer and Ntcham: 10 passesBarkas and Ajer: 13 passesTaylor and Ajeti: 14 passesAjer and Brown: 15 passesBrown and McGregor: 15 passesTaylor and Ntcham: 16 passesMcGregor and Christie: 18 passesAjer and Taylor: 24 passesAjer and McGregor: 25 passesFrimpong and Ntcham: 25 passesElhamed and Frimpong: 28 passesDuffy and Ajer: 29 passesDuffy and Elhamed: 32 passesElhamed and Ntcham: 33 passesTaylor and Christie: 35 passesTaylor and McGregor: 42 passesBarkas: 20 completed passesDuffy: 55 completed passesElhamed: 62 completed passesAjer: 73 completed passesFrimpong: 35 completed passesTaylor: 75 completed passesNtcham: 56 completed passesBrown: 39 completed passesMcGregor: 65 completed passesAjeti: 20 completed passesChristie: 41 completed passes144435303218421017BarkasDuffyElhamedAjerFrimpongTaylorNtchamBrownMcGregorAjetiChristieStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Ambrose: 3 passesAmbrose and Tiffoney: 3 passesBartley and Pittman: 3 passesHolt and Tiffoney: 3 passesAmbrose and Brown: 4 passesAmbrose and Bartley: 4 passesSerrano and Sibbald: 4 passesBartley and Holt: 4 passesAmbrose and Holt: 5 passesAmbrose and Pittman: 5 passesBrown and Guthrie: 5 passesBrown and Serrano: 5 passesBrown and Holt: 5 passesHolt and Pittman: 5 passesMcCrorie and Brown: 6 passesDevlin and Holt: 6 passesMcCrorie and Devlin: 8 passesAmbrose and Guthrie: 10 passesMcCrorie and Ambrose: 12 passesMcCrorie: 17 completed passesDevlin: 8 completed passesAmbrose: 27 completed passesBrown: 15 completed passesGuthrie: 12 completed passesSerrano: 5 completed passesBartley: 11 completed passesSibbald: 6 completed passesHolt: 14 completed passesPittman: 12 completed passesTiffoney: 5 completed passes12253271261018822McCrorieDevlinAmbroseBrownGuthrieSerranoBartleySibbaldHoltPittmanTiffoneyStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorTaylor28
TaylorChristie25
ElhamedFrimpong22
TaylorMcGregor22
AjerTaylor21

Livingston

FromToPasses
McCrorieDevlin10
AmbroseMcCrorie9
GuthrieAmbrose6
McCrorieAmbrose6
HoltDevlin4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

2−1.04−1.04−4.22−2.83−1.76+0.72−3.04+0.28+2.311+3.34−0.36−0.81−0.85−0.74+0.74+1.22−0.37+2.72−2.74+2.54+1.52+0.33+0.50−3.30−0.22+1.71+0.31+0.30−1.20−6.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Livingston

4−1.09+4.110−2.75+0.98+3.313+6.116+10.09+2.014+6.380.05−0.66+1.10−4.47+2.64−2.32−1.31−3.43−0.64+0.40−5.44+1.32−0.70−1.31−0.12−1.11−0.90−1.00−0.90−0.30−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.020.030.010.020.030.040.060.020.060.040.010.040.050.090.020.030.010.090.030.02−0.010.120.130.10LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.010.020.030.010.040.010.050.01−0.010.010.010.01−0.01−0.01−0.050.050.090.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.01AttackCeltic1.81 → 1.85Livingston0.88 → 0.99Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.41 → 0.53Livingston1.19 → 1.19

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title56%58%+2
Livingston
Top six28%26%−2
11th11%11%0
Bottom9%9%0
Rangers
Title43%42%−1

From the forecast before the match (19 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticLivingston
Expected goals2.450.35
Win83%4%
Expected Points2.630.24
Clean sheet70%9%

Celtic 83%Draw 13%Livingston 4%

Most likely score 2–0, 18%. Both sides score 27%.

Livingston goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%2%6%6%1%5%9%3%4%2%3%1%15%18%15%

From the forecast as it stood on 19 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawLivingston win
Celtic
Title56%58%48%40%
Livingston
Top six28%26%38%43%
11th11%11%9%5%
Bottom9%9%6%4%
Rangers
Title43%42%51%60%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–116 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.18–1.12
  2. W5–012 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.32–0.81
  3. W3–030 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.06–0.22
  4. W1–022 AugDundee United (A)xG 3.00–0.29
  5. D1–19 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 0.74–1.06
  6. W5–12 AugHamilton Academical (H)xG 4.51–0.47

Livingston

  1. L1–212 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.43–0.78
  2. W1–029 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.31–0.38
  3. L1–223 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.62–2.15
  4. D0–016 AugRangers (H)xG 0.07–1.11
  5. D2–212 AugMotherwell (A)xG 2.03–0.50
  6. L1–48 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.42–3.83

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticLivingston
Position2nd11th
Played67
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠01–⁠2–⁠4
Points16 (2.67 per game)5 (0.71 per game)
Expected Points per game2.401.37
Goals17–⁠36–⁠11
xG per game2.64–⁠0.661.35–⁠1.40
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 3.29–⁠0.341.00, 1.31–⁠1.53
Away: points, xG per game2.50, 2.31–⁠0.820.33, 1.40–⁠1.23
ManagerNeil Lennon (6)Gary Holt (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.01AttackCeltic1.81, 1stLivingston0.88, 5thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.41, 2ndLivingston1.19, 9th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepCeltic attack: 1.81Livingston attack: 0.881.810.88LivingstonCelticDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepCeltic defence: 0.41Livingston defence: 1.191.190.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+101%−69%+2%−18%
Counter-attacks+670%−100%−100%−72%
Set pieces+33%−21%−16%+42%
Penalties+105%+3%+76%+76%
Headers−15%−45%−10%+44%
Left side+63%−68%−33%−23%
Centre+119%−47%+31%+24%
Right side+92%−59%−51%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdLivingston concededLeft side+63%−30%Centre+119%+24%Right side+92%−23%Open play+101%−18%Counter-attacks+670%−72%Set pieces+33%+42%Headers−15%+44%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdCeltic concededLeft side−33%−59%Centre+31%−47%Right side−51%−68%Open play+2%−69%Counter-attacks−100%−100%Set pieces−16%−21%Headers−10%−45%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticLivingston

2.64xG1.35
0.66xG against1.40
70%Possession51%
19.5Shots11.3
7.0Shots against11.1
8.5Shots on target2.7
3.8Big chances1.3
613Passes349
87%Pass accuracy62%
6.7Corners5.7
79%Field tilt55%
75.1Final-third entries37.9
20.5Box entries10.9
9.6Passes per defensive action11.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.150.60
Ahead473.060.76
Behind32.550.00

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.851.13
Ahead121.820.55
Behind301.962.17

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.212–1
16–300.310.193–1
31–450.550.063–1
46–600.370.073–0
61–750.740.093–0
76–900.430.043–0

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.082–1
16–300.130.230–2
31–450.160.320–3
46–600.200.251–3
61–750.320.223–0
76–900.250.300–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 5Bain 1Frimpong 3Elhamed 2Duffy 1Jullien 5Duffy 1Ajer 5Bitton 1Taylor 4Edouard 2Brown 3Christie 1Frimpong 1McGregor 6Forrest 1Forrest 3Christie 2Ntcham 1Brown 2Ntcham 2Christie 1Elyounoussi 3Edouard 1Forrest 1Edouard 2Brown 1Christie 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMcCrorie 6Stryjek 1Fitzwater 5Robinson 1Bartley 1Pittman 2Ambrose 2Guthrie 7Taylor-Sinclair 2Brown 1Devlin 6Robinson 1Bartley 6Pittman 1Sibbald 4Forrest 2Holt 1Ambrose 2Serrano 2McMillan 2Pittman 4Robinson 3Holt 1Forrest 4Sibbald 2Dykes 3Lokotsch 2Holt 13-4-2-1 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Christie5465120.250.32
Forrest5468210.280.23
McGregor6528020.060.23
Ajer5466110.190.08

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest6518100.210.25
Pittman7630100.340.05
Devlin6496000.050.24
Robinson5452000.090.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.