Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock

Saturday 10 April 2027, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 33

Forecast

AberdeenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.511.15
Win45%28%
Expected Points1.621.12
Clean sheet32%22%

Aberdeen 45%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%7%5%2%7%3%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenKilmarnock
Position8th12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠41–⁠2–⁠5
Points8 (1.00 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game0.980.81
Goals7–⁠97–⁠18
xG per game1.04–⁠1.611.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.33–⁠1.540.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.691.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerStephen Robinson (17)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.11, 10thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.47, 9thKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.11Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.11KilmarnockAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.47Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−50%−14%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks−64%+24%−77%+88%
Set pieces+30%−7%−15%+48%
Penalties−40%+80%−100%−40%
Headers+56%−23%−36%+137%
Left side−61%+11%−39%+57%
Centre−32%−41%−23%+80%
Right side−7%+28%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−61%−5%Centre−32%+80%Right side−7%+57%Open play−50%+41%Counter-attacks−64%+88%Set pieces+30%+48%Headers+56%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−39%+28%Centre−23%−41%Right side−20%+11%Open play−20%−14%Counter-attacks−77%+24%Set pieces−15%−7%Headers−36%−23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenKilmarnock

1.04xG1.04
1.61xG against2.21
48%Possession42%
11.5Shots10.2
15.9Shots against18.5
2.9Shots on target4.0
1.5Big chances1.6
22.0Touches in the opposition box20.1
399Passes378
78%Pass accuracy77%
6.1Corners4.6
42%Field tilt39%
38.6Final-third entries36.9
12.5Box entries10.5
14.0Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 September 2026Aberdeen0–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–1.11
25 April 2026Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 0.50–0.71
31 January 2026Kilmarnock3–0AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
14 December 2025Aberdeen2–1KilmarnockxG 3.76–1.02
29 October 2025Kilmarnock0–1AberdeenxG 1.36–0.55
22 February 2025Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.08–0.43

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 10, Kilmarnock won 6, and 1 was a draw. Goals 18–16 and xG 1.23–1.25 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.