Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Hearts

Saturday 20 February 2027, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 28

Forecast

MotherwellHearts
Expected goals1.251.34
Win34%38%
Expected Points1.291.43
Clean sheet26%29%

Motherwell 34%Draw 28%Hearts 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  2. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  3. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  4. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  5. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16
  6. D3–330 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.45–2.92

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHearts
Position9th3rd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠45–⁠1–⁠2
Points8 (1.00 per game)16 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.271.90
Goals9–⁠1319–⁠8
xG per game1.51–⁠1.872.02–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.113.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.61–⁠2.631.00, 1.60–⁠1.66
ManagerAlfred Johansson (8)Wouter Vrancken (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackMotherwell1.30, 5thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thHearts1.11, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.30Hearts attack: 1.521.521.30HeartsMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Hearts defence: 1.111.321.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%+1%+17%−21%
Counter-attacks−12%+81%−11%−53%
Set pieces−42%average+27%−8%
Penalties+20%+80%+140%−40%
Headers−43%−1%−10%−9%
Left side−32%−13%+45%−37%
Centre−31%+19%+25%+5%
Right side+58%+22%−34%−50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side−32%−50%Centre−31%+5%Right side+58%−37%Open play+6%−21%Counter-attacks−12%−53%Set pieces−42%−8%Headers−43%−9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side+45%+22%Centre+25%+19%Right side−34%−13%Open play+17%+1%Counter-attacks−11%+81%Set pieces+27%averageHeaders−10%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHearts

1.51xG2.02
1.87xG against1.20
58%Possession54%
14.0Shots16.8
16.4Shots against9.5
4.4Shots on target5.4
2.1Big chances2.8
24.6Touches in the opposition box29.9
571Passes445
88%Pass accuracy79%
5.1Corners7.4
59%Field tilt59%
50.8Final-third entries38.2
14.1Box entries16.5
14.8Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.601.37
Ahead172.361.40
Behind401.082.49

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.181–2
16–300.280.342–1
31–450.270.242–5
46–600.140.460–3
61–750.280.262–0
76–900.220.392–2

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 8Sparrow 8Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 1Moormann 8Longelo 7Williams 1Fadinger 8Priestman 2Hodge 5Levitt 1Maswanhise 4Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 4Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 4Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 2Maswanhise 2Lowry 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 May 2026Motherwell1–1HeartsxG 0.55–1.33
11 April 2026Hearts3–1MotherwellxG 1.74–2.21
29 November 2025Motherwell0–0HeartsxG 0.58–0.41
23 August 2025Hearts3–3MotherwellxG 2.21–1.52
10 May 2025Hearts3–0MotherwellxG 0.52–0.42
12 April 2025Motherwell0–0HeartsxG 0.27–1.12

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 5, Hearts won 9, and 4 were drawn. Goals 18–27 and xG 1.33–1.45 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise6491120.600.05
Lowry6534210.260.23
Longelo8656000.080.24
Fadinger8689100.180.06

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.