Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v St. Mirren

Saturday 9 January 2027, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 23

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.451.17
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.561.17
Clean sheet31%23%

Kilmarnock 43%Draw 27%St. Mirren 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%3%1%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

St. Mirren

  1. L0–510 OctHearts (A)xG 0.68–3.43
  2. L0–319 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.99–1.60
  3. L0–19 SepRangers (A)xG 1.26–2.49
  4. L1–25 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.95–3.19
  5. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.85–0.41
  6. D3–330 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.92–2.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position12th7th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠53–⁠1–⁠4
Points5 (0.62 per game)10 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game0.811.19
Goals7–⁠188–⁠14
xG per game1.04–⁠2.211.47–⁠1.91
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 0.73–⁠2.921.00, 1.86–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.491.50, 1.09–⁠1.72
ManagerNeil McCann (24)Craig McLeish (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thSt. Mirren1.10, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58, 12thSt. Mirren1.44, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17St. Mirren attack: 1.101.171.10St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.58St. Mirren defence: 1.441.581.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+41%−21%+1%
Counter-attacks−77%+88%+85%+43%
Set pieces−15%+48%−33%+1%
Penalties−100%−40%+20%+140%
Headers−36%+137%−50%−14%
Left side−39%+57%−13%+3%
Centre−23%+80%−7%−34%
Right side−20%−5%−11%+73%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−39%+73%Centre−23%−34%Right side−20%+3%Open play−20%+1%Counter-attacks−77%+43%Set pieces−15%+1%Headers−36%−14%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−13%−5%Centre−7%+80%Right side−11%+57%Open play−21%+41%Counter-attacks+85%+88%Set pieces−33%+48%Headers−50%+137%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.04xG1.47
2.21xG against1.91
42%Possession48%
10.2Shots13.5
18.5Shots against15.2
4.0Shots on target3.5
1.6Big chances2.2
20.1Touches in the opposition box26.0
378Passes436
77%Pass accuracy80%
4.6Corners4.2
39%Field tilt47%
36.9Final-third entries39.2
10.5Box entries14.2
16.5Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.702.25
Ahead321.401.23
Behind271.312.33

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.412–3
16–300.200.231–2
31–450.250.333–2
46–600.170.460–3
61–750.380.201–1
76–900.380.291–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTChapman 8Ramsay 6Fraser 1Richardson 1Gogić 7Jackson 1Fraser 1Fieldson 7John 7Sule 1Carr 8Nsio 5Taylor 2Phillips 1Mochrie 4Ramos 2Kabia 1Phillips 2Taylor 2Nsio 1Kabia 4Mochrie 1Taylor 1Agrafiotis 4Sule 2Mochrie 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 September 2026Kilmarnock0–1St. MirrenxG 0.41–0.85
9 May 2026St. Mirren0–3KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.49
11 February 2026Kilmarnock4–3St. MirrenxG 2.76–1.96
27 December 2025St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 1.36–0.75
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 9, St. Mirren won 3, and 7 were drawn. Goals 29–20 and xG 1.31–0.92 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabia6460000.100.15
Ramsay6475000.140.11
Mochrie7474000.070.11
John7630100.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.