Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 2–1 Livingston

Sunday 23 August 2020, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 5 · Half-time 0–0

Aberdeen Ferguson 49' (pen), Wright 55'

Livingston Pittman 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenLivingston
Goals21
xG2.151.62
Non-penalty xG1.371.62
Expected Points1.790.92

Aberdeen 50%Draw 29%Livingston 21%

Most likely score 2–1, 15%. Final score 2–1, 15%.

Livingston goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+2%1%2%10%8%3%3%5%1%2%11%9%4%3%3%1%15%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTOjo on for McKenna, 46'McGeouch on for Wright, 61'McLennan on for Watkins and Main on for Hedges, 81'Hoban on for Kennedy, 90'Ambrose on for Fitzwater, Serrano on for McMillan, and Hamilton on for Sibbald, 70'Tiffoney on for Forrest, 76'Ferguson 49' (pen)Wright 55'Pittman 69'Aberdeen 2.15Livingston 1.6201230153045607590HTOjo on for McKenna, 46'McGeouch on for Wright, 61'McLennan on for Watkins and Main on for Hedges, 81'Hoban on for Kennedy, 90'Ambrose on for Fitzwater, Serrano on for McMillan, and Hamilton on for Sibbald, 70'Tiffoney on for Forrest, 76'Ferguson 49' (pen)Wright 55'Pittman 69'2.151.62AberdeenLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenLivingston

2.15 +1.93xG1.62 +0.60
1.37Non-penalty xG1.62
2.85 +2.62xG on target0.96 −0.04
7 +2.0Shots10 −0.2
5 +3.5Shots on target2 −1.0
4 +4.0Big chances1 +0.2
44% −3Possession56% +10
348 −82Passes452 +158
67% −7Pass accuracy72% +16
50% +20Field tilt50% +2
32 +8Final-third entries38 +4
12 +7.5Box entries9 +1.0
20.9 +8Passes per defensive action10.0 −2
1 −0.5Corners3 −1.0
13 0Tackles21 +6
3 −7Interceptions3 −10
13 −4Clearances12 −12
1 −0.5Saves3 +1.0
11 −4Fouls16 +1
1 +0.5Offsides0 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Watkins 67', 0.47 xGWatkins 67', 0.40 xGFerguson 30', 0.06 xGHayes 75', 0.05 xGHayes 12', 0.04 xGWright 55', 0.35 xG, goal35%0.47 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.47 xG, 0 goals62%0.85 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.85 xG, 1 goal3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Hamilton 86', 0.20 xGDevlin 51', 0.15 xGTiffoney 90+3', 0.12 xGRobinson 33', 0.09 xGMcMillan 51', 0.09 xGSibbald 33', 0.07 xGForrest 42', 0.04 xGForrest 17', 0.03 xGSibbald 50', 0.03 xGPittman 69', 0.82 xG, goal71%1.16 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.16 xG, 1 goal18%0.30 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals7%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenLivingston

1.37 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.36 7 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.26 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
49 min (53%) · Aberdeen 0.89, Livingston 0.22 xG
Aberdeen ahead
44 min (47%) · Aberdeen 1.26, Livingston 1.40 xG

Line-ups

1144052331911172550LewisTaylorMcCrorieMcKennaLoganKennedyFergusonHedgesHayesWrightWatkinsGoalGoal46'90'81'61'81'Aberdeen 3-5-2Derek McInnes12527218611101718McCrorieDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieMcMillanPittmanBartleyForrestSibbaldRobinsonHoltYellow cardGoalYellow card70'70'76'70'Livingston 4-4-1-1Gary Holt

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Ojo for McKenna
  • 61' McGeouch for Wright
  • 81' McLennan for Watkins
  • 81' Main for Hedges
  • 90' Hoban for Kennedy

Livingston substitutes

  • 70' Ambrose for Fitzwater
  • 70' Hamilton for Sibbald
  • 70' Serrano for McMillan
  • 76' Tiffoney for Forrest

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0230
TaylorCB900.000.0000.0447
McCrorieCB900.000.0700.1255
McKennaCB460.000.0000.0125
LoganRWB900.000.0100.0334
KennedyCM900.000.0610.1272
FergusonCM9010.850.1400.1336
HedgesCM8110.000.0710.0433
HayesLWB900.090.4410.2571
WrightST6110.350.0200.0420
WatkinsST810.870.0320.0130
OjoMF440.000.0510.0711
McGeouchMF290.000.0000.0001
McLennanFW90.000.0100.0120
MainFW90.000.000−0.0100
HobanDF00.000.0000.0000

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0881
Devlin RB900.150.6420.2882
FitzwaterCB7010.000.3110.2245
GuthrieCB900.000.3610.2393
McMillanLB700.090.0100.0012
PittmanRM9010.820.1610.0824
BartleyCM900.000.0100.0343
ForrestCM760.060.0200.1142
Sibbald LM700.100.0200.0255
RobinsonAM900.090.0300.0023
HoltST900.000.0510.0654
AmbroseDF200.000.0000.0222
HamiltonFW200.200.0100.0210
SerranoFW200.000.0400.0821
TiffoneyFW140.120.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Taylor and McKenna: 3 passesTaylor and Hayes: 3 passesTaylor and Ferguson: 3 passesMcCrorie and Logan: 3 passesMcKenna and Kennedy: 3 passesMcKenna and Wright: 3 passesHayes and Hedges: 3 passesHayes and Watkins: 3 passesKennedy and Ferguson: 3 passesFerguson and Watkins: 3 passesHedges and Wright: 3 passesMcKenna and Hayes: 4 passesLewis and Taylor: 5 passesTaylor and Hedges: 5 passesTaylor and Logan: 6 passesLogan and Hedges: 6 passesFerguson and Hedges: 6 passesMcCrorie and Hayes: 8 passesHayes and Kennedy: 8 passesHayes and Ferguson: 9 passesLewis: 5 completed passesTaylor: 13 completed passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesMcKenna: 13 completed passesLogan: 11 completed passesHayes: 22 completed passesKennedy: 11 completed passesFerguson: 15 completed passesHedges: 13 completed passesWright: 4 completed passesWatkins: 5 completed passes1144052173319112550LewisTaylorMcCrorieMcKennaLoganHayesKennedyFergusonHedgesWrightWatkinsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

McCrorie and Devlin: 5 passesMcCrorie and Guthrie: 5 passesFitzwater and Bartley: 5 passesBartley and Sibbald: 5 passesForrest and Robinson: 5 passesRobinson and Holt: 5 passesDevlin and Bartley: 6 passesFitzwater and McMillan: 6 passesFitzwater and Sibbald: 6 passesFitzwater and Holt: 6 passesMcMillan and Holt: 6 passesPittman and Holt: 6 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 7 passesDevlin and Pittman: 7 passesGuthrie and McMillan: 7 passesPittman and Sibbald: 7 passesMcMillan and Forrest: 8 passesMcCrorie and Fitzwater: 9 passesSibbald and Holt: 9 passesMcMillan and Sibbald: 10 passesDevlin and Holt: 11 passesFitzwater and Guthrie: 12 passesGuthrie and Sibbald: 23 passesMcCrorie: 14 completed passesDevlin: 28 completed passesFitzwater: 26 completed passesGuthrie: 32 completed passesMcMillan: 24 completed passesPittman: 18 completed passesBartley: 20 completed passesForrest: 14 completed passesSibbald: 38 completed passesRobinson: 9 completed passesHolt: 27 completed passes12527218611101718McCrorieDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieMcMillanPittmanBartleyForrestSibbaldRobinsonHoltStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
HayesFerguson7
LoganHedges7
HayesKennedy7
OjoLogan7
TaylorLogan6

Livingston

FromToPasses
SibbaldGuthrie14
GuthrieSibbald9
DevlinHolt8
GuthrieFitzwater7
McMillanSibbald7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

6+4.55+0.58−5.06−1.03−2.010+5.54−2.56−2.07+2.511+3.09+4.04+1.53−0.54−3.05−4.05+1.02−1.00−3.03−4.03+1.510.02+1.52+1.51−3.500.000.00−1.00−0.500.01−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Livingston

2−2.88+2.26+1.850.07−0.29+2.54−3.23−5.88+1.211+6.04−2.23−2.29+5.27+2.03−0.20−5.85+1.84+1.810+6.22−0.84+2.02+0.50−1.24+1.21−1.01−0.50−1.00−0.22+1.05−12.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.020.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.040.010.020.050.01−0.01−0.010.090.020.050.120.010.100.010.060.23LessMore

Livingston

0.020.020.040.010.030.020.010.020.030.050.010.030.060.020.01−0.01−0.020.030.090.110.020.160.260.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.95AttackAberdeen0.85 → 0.91Livingston0.80 → 0.83Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.76 → 0.80Livingston1.21 → 1.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Title<1%1%+1
Top six79%86%+7
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1
Livingston
Top six21%15%−6
11th14%17%+3
Bottom15%19%+4

From the forecast before the match (23 August 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenLivingston
Expected goals1.190.66
Win48%20%
Expected Points1.770.91
Clean sheet52%30%

Aberdeen 48%Draw 32%Livingston 20%

Most likely score 1–0, 18%. Both sides score 34%.

Livingston goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+10%3%13%4%11%7%2%4%3%1%1%16%18%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 August 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawLivingston win
Aberdeen
Title<1%1%<1%<1%
Top six79%86%76%68%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Livingston
Top six21%15%23%32%
11th14%17%13%11%
Bottom15%19%14%9%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–0.42
  2. L0–11 AugRangers (H)xG 0.15–1.25

Livingston

  1. D0–016 AugRangers (H)xG 0.07–1.11
  2. D2–212 AugMotherwell (A)xG 2.03–0.50
  3. L1–48 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.42–3.83
  4. L0–11 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.55–1.04

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenLivingston
Position8th12th
Played24
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠0–⁠10–⁠2–⁠2
Points3 (1.50 per game)2 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game0.730.99
Goals1–⁠13–⁠7
xG per game0.22–⁠0.831.02–⁠1.62
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 0.15–⁠1.250.50, 0.74–⁠2.47
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 0.29–⁠0.420.50, 1.29–⁠0.77
ManagerDerek McInnes (2)Gary Holt (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.95AttackAberdeen0.85, 5thLivingston0.80, 7thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.76, 3rdLivingston1.21, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.01 Aug22 AugAberdeen attack: 0.85Livingston attack: 0.800.850.80LivingstonAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.01 Aug22 AugAberdeen defence: 0.76Livingston defence: 1.211.210.76

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−27%−5%−29%−4%
Counter-attacks−33%−33%−67%−39%
Set pieces−26%−15%−30%+65%
Penalties−33%−33%+142%+38%
Headers−26%−22%−39%+38%
Left side−30%+4%−30%−20%
Centre−29%−15%−25%+48%
Right side−20%−14%−41%−6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdLivingston concededLeft side−30%−6%Centre−29%+48%Right side−20%−20%Open play−27%−4%Counter-attacks−33%−39%Set pieces−26%+65%Headers−26%+38%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdAberdeen concededLeft side−30%−14%Centre−25%−15%Right side−41%+4%Open play−29%−5%Counter-attacks−67%−33%Set pieces−30%−15%Headers−39%−22%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenLivingston

0.22xG1.02
0.83xG against1.62
47%Possession46%
5.0Shots10.2
13.0Shots against13.8
1.5Shots on target3.0
0.0Big chances0.8
430Passes294
74%Pass accuracy56%
1.5Corners4.0
30%Field tilt48%
23.5Final-third entries34.5
4.5Box entries8.0
12.9Passes per defensive action11.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.280.75
Ahead40.000.56
Behind340.160.99

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.421.23
Ahead0––
Behind411.732.09

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.100–0
16–300.030.240–1
31–450.030.050–0
46–600.000.100–0
61–750.070.080–0
76–900.050.261–0

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.091–1
16–300.060.340–2
31–450.080.480–3
46–600.260.081–0
61–750.220.151–0
76–900.100.480–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBAMSTLewis 2Hayes 1Taylor 2McCrorie 1Hoban 1McKenna 1Hernández 2Ferguson 1Ojo 2Kennedy 1Wright 1Campbell 1Hayes 1Considine 1Ferguson 1Bryson 1McGinn 1Anderson 13-5-1-1 in 1 of 2 starts

Formations: 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMcCrorie 3Stryjek 1Fitzwater 4Pittman 1Guthrie 4Taylor-Sinclair 2Brown 1Devlin 3Robinson 1Bartley 4Sibbald 3Forrest 1Ambrose 2McMillan 1Brown 1Pittman 3Holt 1Forrest 2Sibbald 1Robinson 1Dykes 3Hamilton 13-4-2-1 in 3 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.