Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk v Hibernian

Saturday 2 January 2027, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 22

Forecast

FalkirkHibernian
Expected goals1.291.28
Win36%36%
Expected Points1.371.35
Clean sheet28%28%

Falkirk 36%Draw 28%Hibernian 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Falkirk

  1. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  2. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  3. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  4. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  5. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  6. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkHibernian
Position11th10th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠3–⁠42–⁠1–⁠5
Points6 (0.75 per game)7 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game0.991.33
Goals7–⁠118–⁠12
xG per game1.17–⁠1.831.58–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.42–⁠1.580.25, 1.56–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.92–⁠2.081.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerJohn McGlynn (46)Marink Reedijk (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.18, 7thHibernian1.32, 4thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.44, 8thHibernian1.27, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk attack: 1.18Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.18HibernianFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctFalkirk defence: 1.44Hibernian defence: 1.271.441.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%+36%−15%+6%
Counter-attacks−86%−20%−13%−1%
Set pieces−50%+40%+8%−6%
Penalties−40%−100%+80%+20%
Headers−64%−37%−35%+7%
Left side−49%+14%−11%−2%
Centre−24%+24%−25%+24%
Right side+1%+51%+20%−26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHibernian concededLeft side−49%−26%Centre−24%+24%Right side+1%−2%Open play−2%+6%Counter-attacks−86%−1%Set pieces−50%−6%Headers−64%+7%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdFalkirk concededLeft side−11%+51%Centre−25%+24%Right side+20%+14%Open play−15%+36%Counter-attacks−13%−20%Set pieces+8%+40%Headers−35%−37%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkHibernian

1.17xG1.58
1.83xG against1.65
48%Possession51%
11.6Shots16.4
15.9Shots against13.4
3.1Shots on target4.4
1.5Big chances2.0
24.1Touches in the opposition box31.6
415Passes443
77%Pass accuracy81%
4.5Corners6.9
49%Field tilt55%
38.5Final-third entries44.7
9.8Box entries15.0
12.6Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.451.49
Ahead221.252.13
Behind260.652.12

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.152–3
16–300.090.430–2
31–450.260.362–0
46–600.130.211–1
61–750.230.342–0
76–900.280.330–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 8Strain 8Neilson 6Meļņiks 2Henderson 8McCann 7Tanser 1Barbrook 7McMillan 1Spencer 6Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 5Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 6Yeats 2Eames 4Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 5Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 May 2026Falkirk1–3HibernianxG 0.63–1.10
24 January 2026Falkirk4–1HibernianxG 3.64–0.73
6 December 2025Hibernian3–0FalkirkxG 2.02–0.49
23 September 2025Falkirk2–2HibernianxG 1.18–2.43

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Hibernian won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 7–9 and xG 1.49–1.57 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8720030.070.17
Barbrook7591000.110.10
Ross7570100.110.10
Spencer6528000.070.10

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.