Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Kilmarnock v Falkirk

Wednesday 30 December 2026, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 21

Forecast

KilmarnockFalkirk
Expected goals1.451.26
Win41%32%
Expected Points1.501.23
Clean sheet28%23%

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 27%Falkirk 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Falkirk goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%5%2%9%8%3%1%7%9%6%2%3%4%3%1%1%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

Falkirk

  1. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  2. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  3. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  4. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  5. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  6. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockFalkirk
Position12th11th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠51–⁠3–⁠4
Points5 (0.62 per game)6 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game0.810.99
Goals7–⁠187–⁠11
xG per game1.04–⁠2.211.17–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 0.73–⁠2.920.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠1.490.75, 0.92–⁠2.08
ManagerNeil McCann (24)John McGlynn (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.17, 8thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.58, 12thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.17Falkirk attack: 1.181.181.17FalkirkKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.58Falkirk defence: 1.441.581.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+41%−2%+36%
Counter-attacks−77%+88%−86%−20%
Set pieces−15%+48%−50%+40%
Penalties−100%−40%−40%−100%
Headers−36%+137%−64%−37%
Left side−39%+57%−49%+14%
Centre−23%+80%−24%+24%
Right side−20%−5%+1%+51%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdFalkirk concededLeft side−39%+51%Centre−23%+24%Right side−20%+14%Open play−20%+36%Counter-attacks−77%−20%Set pieces−15%+40%Headers−36%−37%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−49%−5%Centre−24%+80%Right side+1%+57%Open play−2%+41%Counter-attacks−86%+88%Set pieces−50%+48%Headers−64%+137%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockFalkirk

1.04xG1.17
2.21xG against1.83
42%Possession48%
10.2Shots11.6
18.5Shots against15.9
4.0Shots on target3.1
1.6Big chances1.5
20.1Touches in the opposition box24.1
378Passes415
77%Pass accuracy77%
4.6Corners4.5
39%Field tilt49%
36.9Final-third entries38.5
10.5Box entries9.8
16.5Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.451.49
Ahead221.252.13
Behind260.652.12

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.152–3
16–300.090.430–2
31–450.260.362–0
46–600.130.211–1
61–750.230.342–0
76–900.280.330–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 8Strain 8Neilson 6Meļņiks 2Henderson 8McCann 7Tanser 1Barbrook 7McMillan 1Spencer 6Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 5Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 6Yeats 2Eames 4Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 5Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 February 2026Falkirk5–1KilmarnockxG 3.14–0.39
20 December 2025Kilmarnock0–1FalkirkxG 1.19–1.46
1 November 2025Falkirk3–1KilmarnockxG 2.08–0.43

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Falkirk won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–9 and xG 0.67–2.23 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8720030.070.17
Barbrook7591000.110.10
Ross7570100.110.10
Spencer6528000.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.